Who is the next sleeper to breakout?
As mentioned by my good friend Zareh (@ZKantzFF) in his most recent article it is necessary as a dynasty manager to be privy to the players that others are overlooking. One of the biggest concerns for managers this year is the running back and tight end position, but I have some guys you should be looking out for. I also discuss a quarterback that I think has some good upside and should definitely be rostered in superflex leagues. Before reading on I highly recommend you check out Zareh’s sleepers here: Identifying Sleepers From The 2021 NFL Draft.
Garrett Groshek – UDFA RB – Wisconsin
Groshek is the ideal size of a back at 5’11” 200lbs with a sturdy BMI of 30.7. He is on the older side at 23 but he was able to compliment Jonathan Taylor very well in college. In his four years at Wisconsin he was able to amass 79 catches on 91 targets for a catch rate of 87%. In his Senior year (6 games), Wisconsin was forced to accept that JT was gone, and thus he caught 22 of 27 targets in that year alone. This amounted for a 13.4% target share and he was able to produce well on the ground as well with 300 yards on 4.5YPC.
He went undrafted to the Raiders, but he has the most guaranteed money of any UDFA RB this year. He is not perfect by any means, only running a 4.64 40-yard dash on his pro day and similarly lack luster pro day metrics all around, but he gets the opportunity to learn from Josh Jacobs and Kenyan Drake. I fully expect him to take a strong role on the team should one of them become injured or miss time for any reason so I will be watching for the Raiders depth chart and the reports coming out of camp.
Gerrid Doaks – 7th Round RB – Cincinnati
Another back with the ideal size, 5’11” 228lbs for a BMI of 31.8, and right on the verge of 23. Gerrid Doaks was fortunate enough to head to Miami to work with the slim backfield the Dolphins have. The only real competition Doaks is facing is the defacto starter Myles Gaskin, and Malcolm Brown. Gaskin is also a 7th round selection so the Draft Capital should not be an issue in who wins this role, but I believe it will be determined in camp. I would give a 40% chance for Doaks to take the most volume on the team, and Gaskin 40%. The other 20% is the chance they bring someone in from FA/Trade or the likes of Brown/UDFA Salvon Ahmed taking it over.
Doaks has an impressive profile averaging 5.3 YPC in his college career, and although he is slower (4.58 pro day 40-yard dash), he has more burst and speed when you account for size than anyone else in the backfield. With Gaskin having an ADP of 103 overall or RB34 and Doaks going undrafted in most leagues, it is an easy waiver pick up to potentially get a share of that backfield. Ahmed and Brown are both near the end of ADP at 263 overall or RB86 and 282 overall or RB92 respectively, and at that price I do not mind taking shots on either of them, but Doaks is still the cheapest and best bet.
Jacob Harris – 4th Round TE/WR – UCF
Harris began playing football in 2018, but he was relegated to being a redshirt freshman. Prior to college he was playing Soccer in high school and had no previous football experience. Then we reach his Sophomore year where he starts at WR and he had a decent year, averaging almost 24 yards per reception. He led the team in catches from 40+ yards in both his Sophomore and Junior year, but during his Junior year he was able to establish a dominator rating of 20% and tallied up 8 touchdowns.
The exciting thing about Harris is that when he was selected in the draft by the Los Angeles Rams, he was designated as a TE and he comes in at 6’5” 220lbs.
If your league is a TE premium league, then this is amazing news as he is flying under most people’s radar. He is slightly undersized, but this leads me to believe he will be allowed to carry this designation but play primarily as a receiver. He has an insane athletic profile scoring in the 90th percentile in every metric except his 40-yard dash which was still an impressive 4.43 at his pro day. I do not think it will be hard for Harris to take time away from Higbee at TE and even Van Jefferson or Tutu Atwell at WR so this is a beautiful landing spot and I am excited to see what he can bring to the NFL.
Ian Book – 4th Round QB – Notre Dame
Book comes in slightly under the prototypical size you would want from a QB at 6’ 211lbs but he was able to throw for almost 9,000 yards in college while also rushing for 1,500. During his time at Notre Dame, he had a TD/INT ratio of 72:20 and 17 rushing touchdowns. A very respectable completion percentage of 63.5% and he has the benefit of being drafted by a team who has concerns at QB.
The New Orleans Saints selected Book in the 4th Round of the draft, and I instantly inquired about how he could do in that system. He is not as big as either of the residing QB’s (Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill), but he shows good potential to be a dual threat QB and that seemed to be what they were looking for in Hill. Hill however just had his contract restructured so that none of his money is guaranteed and Winston is on a one year prove it deal.
It is very possible that if Book shows out in camp or during the preseason games that he could win the role, if not this year, then possibly next. It is also worth noting that Book profiles very similarly to Drew Brees from a size and speed perspective. Book will need some time to develop as an NFL QB but being able to learn from Winston and Sean Payton should help tremendously. If he gets a start, I’m expecting him to perform well enough to draw some attention to his potential, and garner further starts.
