Yards Per Fantasy University: Metrics That Matter In Fantasy Football
There’s a lot of stats out there these days, lots of information available and you’ll hear plenty of people throwing them around like you should know what they mean:
“player x has a higher aDOT than player y but player y has a higher YAC”
Huh?!
Here are some commonly-touted metrics, what they mean and why they matter in fantasy football.
SEE ALL COURSES
Points Per Reception (PPR)
A scoring methodology within fantasy football that gives fantasy points for each reception.
League scoring differs and could reward half-PPR (half a point per reception) or full-PPR (one point per reception) or something more weird and wonderful.
Yards per Carry (YPC)
How many yards does a player carry the ball, on average, every time they carry the ball.
Most often used for running backs, who have more carries than other positions, but also used for rushing quarterbacks and the occasional wide receiver who gets a carry or two.
The calculation is total rushing yards divided by number of carries.
Does it matter? Yes and no. Yards per carry is arguably influenced more by how well the offensive line blocks and makes space for the running back and so a high or low YPC is not necessarily due to anything the running back did or didn’t do. However, it’s important to understand what to expect from that combination of running back and team.
Yards per Target (YPT)
How many receiving yards does a player get, on average, every time they are targeted by the quarterback.
The calculation is total receiving yards divided by number of targets.
Does it matter? Yes but it’s an incomplete picture. On the face of it, a player getting a higher yards per target would sound like a better asset for your fantasy team. However, other factors including volume need to be taken into account. The highest YPT values in the league are no good if that player only gets 5 targets per season.
Yards per Reception (YPR)
This is the same concept as Yards per Target but divides the total yards by the number of receptions, rather than targets. Everything noted in Yards per Target applies here, except this time the numbers will reflect how many yards the player is actually getting and not be diluted by targets they don’t catch.
Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
How far downfield is a player, on average, when the ball is thrown their way (or more accurately, where they are when the ball reaches them or otherwise). Note that the starting point is where the ball is snapped, regardless of how far the quarterback drops before they throw it.
Does it matter? Yes, it signals opportunity. It’s a measure of how deep a player is running routes and is a semi-predictable measure of how a player is likely to perform with their targets. A low aDOT means they’re getting a short pass, close to the line of scrimmage, and their chances of making big plays is reduced. A high aDOT means they’re a handful of catches away from big plays and big yards.
Air Yards
Similar to Average Depth of Target, Air Yards is the total of the yards run by a player when they are targeted (before they catch the ball). For example, if a player is targeted 3 times in a game and each time they have run 10 yards before they catch the ball then they will have 30 air yards. It does not include any yards gained by the player once they have the ball.
Does it matter? Yes, in the same way that aDOT does. The more air yards they have, the more likely they are to put the points on the board. Unlike aDOT, air yards factors in volume so a player getting half the aDOT but twice the targets will end up with the same air yards in total.
Yards Before Catch (YBC)
Again, this is similar to Average Depth of Target but this time it only matters for those targets that are caught. Essentially, it’s the air yards on completed passes, excluding incompletions.
Does it matter? Yes, somewhat. aDOT is possibly the more reliable indicator of opportunity but YBC filters for those players who are getting the air yards but just aren’t catching the ball. If you’re trying to understand the breakdown of receiving yards, it’s Yards Before Catch + Yards After Catch.
Yards After Catch (YAC)
How many yards a player gains once they have caught the ball. For example, if they catch a pass 10 yards downfield and then run for another 20 yards then they will have a 30 yard gain, with a YAC of 20.
Does it matter? Yes, to build a picture of how a player performs. It’s important to remember that the deeper the target, the lower the YAC is likely to be on average. YAC is generally stable for many players and if they have a particularly high or low YAC in any given week or season, they are likely to regress back towards the mean. However, there are players who are renowned for high YAC based on their abilities and stature, and there are players who consistently have a low YAC.
Yards per Attempt (YPA)
This is a quarterback stat reflecting, on average, how many yards are being completed for every pass they attempt.
The calculation is total passing yards divided by number of pass attempts.
Does it matter? Yes and no. It’s a nice indicator of how many yards are being stacked up on average, and can help identify outliers who get particularly high or low YPA, but there are so many factors that influence it (volume, catch percentage, aDOT, YAC, etc) that it’s not all that helpful on its own.
Intended Air Yards (IAY)
This is the same as air yards or aDOT but from the quarterback’s side. It’s how many yards a quarterback throws the ball through the air towards their receivers. It doesn’t take in to account whether they catch the ball or any yards they gain after the catch.
Does it matter? Yes. If a quarterback has a low IAY then they are dumping the ball off short and not making big plays, it takes a lot of volume to stack up worthwhile numbers in this scenario. If they have a high IAY then they are throwing it deep and giving their receivers a shot at big plays and big numbers. It’s all about opportunity.
Red Zone Touches
You may hear a number of variants of this (red zone carries, red zone attempts, red zone targets, etc).
It’s simply the number of times a player touches the ball in the ‘red zone’ which is between the opponent’s 20 yard line and the goal line. There are various outlets that have other names for within the 10 yard line or within the 5 yard line, etc so look out for these too.
Does it matter? Yes, the more touches a player is getting at that end of the field the more likely they are to score a touchdown.
Touchdown Percentage
Can be used on pass attempts, carries, targets, or any volume metric that you like.
The calculation is total touchdowns divided by the volume metric. For example, touchdowns divided by pass attempts.
Does it matter? Yes and no. Touchdown volume is inherently unpredictable and not a reliable indicator of expected future performance. Touchdown rates can help you see the outliers and those that you can expect to regress back towards the mean.
WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating)
Created by Josh Hermsmeyer, this combines the target share that a player is getting with their share of air yards. Target share alone doesn’t tell a full picture if those targets are all low yardage targets, so this metric takes in to account those important air yards we discussed above.
The calculation is 1.5 x target share + 0.7 x Air yards share. For example, if a player has 20-percent of the targets and 15-percent of the air yards, the calculation would be (1.5 x 0.2) + (0.7 x 0.15) WOPR of 0.41
Does it matter? Within each team, yes. If a player has a high WOPR then they are the main person on their team and most likely to put up those fantasy points. However, there is a limitation with this metric in that it doesn’t factor in team volume. For example, a player on a low passing volume team could have the same WOPR as a player on a high passing volume, but the player on the high volume team will get significantly more fantasy points. In other words, 25-percent of a family-sized pizza is very different to 25-percent of a small pizza!
Hopefully you can now hold your own when someone starts spouting terminology and statistics that they’re using to convince you of their point.
And of course, you can always ask the Yards Per Fantasy team for help and advice any time with our Ask The Expert feature.
Professor: Follow @MattFFBall
