Fantasy Football University: Trading
Whilst the main foundational piece of your fantasy football league is the draft, it doesn’t stop there and you’re not locked in to all of those players until the end of time. One of the major ways of changing the players on your roster is through trades.
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The Basics
As with most things in fantasy football, the trading concept is pretty simple. You offer something to another team in exchange for something they have. In it’s simplest form, you give player A and receive player B in return.
Why Trade?
Let’s say you went through your draft and took the best players available, you have four incredible running backs but are scraping the barrel with your wide receivers. Or lets say you built your team around a foundational stud running back and they get a season-ending injury in week three. You need to fill those gaps and the players available on the waiver wire aren’t going to cut it, so you look for a trade.
Another common reason for trading is that you simply want a certain player. He’s your dream pick and you missed out on him in the draft, so you look for a trade.
Or you think you have some good solid pieces in your team but you really need to upgrade to get someone in that next tier up, you look for a trade.
Trade Structure
We’ll start off with season-long redraft leagues, where you’re only looking at players that are helping you this year and you’ll be starting fresh next year. In this scenario, 99 times out of 100 the trade will consist simply of players on either side (there is a scenario where you might throw in some of the FAAB budget to get it over the line, see the Waiver v FAAB section for further info on that).
The main things to remember with any trade are the values of the players and team needs, on BOTH sides of the trade. Starting simply, you’re not going to get a deal done offering the 20th best wide receiver for the 3rd best wide receiver, the values just don’t align. But you could offer the 10th best wide receiver and the 10th best running back for example, the values of those players combined might be much closer to the value of that 3rd best receiver.
Which brings us to part two, team needs. If you’re trading for a wide receiver then chances are you need a wide receiver, but if you’re going to leave yourself with a running back shaped hole that you can’t plug, then you’re sacrificing your own team needs. On the flip side, and perhaps more importantly for your chances of getting a trade done, what does the team you’re trading with need? Why would they give up that wide receiver? Well, if they’re short on running back and have an abundance of receivers then it might make sense for them to trade one of those receivers to fill their running back hole. That’s what you should be looking at when lining up a trade, it has to benefit the other manager in some way (at least in their eyes) or you’ve got no chance of getting the trade done.
Consolidation v Upgrade
A quick pitstop on a specific concept here, although the principles are the same.
If you are looking to package players to upgrade to a better player, is there a reason for the other manager to want to do it? The other manager would need to be in a position where they have no depth and are struggling to fill their starting roster with usable players. A downgrade from the 3rd best wide receiver to the 10th best wide receiver might be a small price to pay to get the 10th best running back as well.
Remember, just because the value on both sides of the trade is fair doesn’t mean it’s a worthwhile trade for both parties. If you offer five less than average players for one stud, the values might add up but it’s probably a horrible offer.
Offering and Negotiating Trades
We’re in to the psychology portion of things now. You can put together a trade that you believe fits both sides but simply sending that offer to that other manager might not get the job done.
Firstly, if someone’s offering you a trade then there’s a likelihood you’re wondering what they know that you don’t. Why are they trying to get rid of that player? And if they want that player of mine then they must be really good, so I want to keep them. These are very real thoughts and considerations that go in to a trade so you need to be aware of them.
Secondly, you need to think about how the offer is made and what communications go alongside the offer, if any. Do you just send the trade offer and wait quietly for a response? Do you send the trade and a follow up message to that person to try and get a discussion going? Do you start with a discussion before sending any kind of offer?
Thirdly, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Just because you value players in a certain way, doesn’t mean everyone does. You might be trying to get their favourite player or someone they’re convinced is about to hit big, or they might really dislike one of the players you’re offering up. Is the other manager one that likes to shoot for the moon with big upside players or do they like a safe floor? It all matters in the art of the trade and the negotiation.
The answer to all of these things…know your league. It really is down to the personal approaches of individuals, their views on players or types of players, their level of trust, and more. Understand the things that make your league-mates tick, and what they’re willing to do. It might take some trial and error to work some of this out but there’s no substitution for it.
And remember, some people just don’t want to trade. They’re paralysed by the fear of getting screwed or ending up with a bad deal, or the fear of trading away a player two weeks before he becomes great. That’s ok. You can try, but don’t force it with them if they don’t want to. Fantasy football is supposed to be fun for everyone in the league, don’t take the fun away for them if trading isn’t their bag.
‘Winning the Trade’
Despite what you may read and hear, ‘winning the trade’ is not the outcome you actually need, not in it’s traditional meaning at least. For you, a ‘win’ should be making your team better. If you’ve given up more value than you’re receiving in return, but your roster is better and you believe you’ll get more fantasy points as a result, then you ‘won’. That said, remember it is still a value game and giving up significantly more value than you receive could very well hinder you in the long term.
Now, and this ties in to the psychology of trading and knowing your league-mates, there may be other managers in your league who are just looking to ‘win the trade’. These are the ones that won’t accept fair value offers and will make unfair offers in return. You’ll work out who these are pretty quickly and chances are you’ll never be able to make a worthwhile trade with these people, focus your efforts elsewhere.
Trade Value
Knowing the value of players is not easy and experienced players may be able to trust their gut, but there are some things to consider.
- How well has that player performed so far? If they are the best running back in the league so far then their value is higher than the 5th best tight end. However, as many good financial TV ads say, past performance is not always a reliable indicator of future performance. If a player is the best running back in the league because his team-mate was injured for the first five weeks of the season but is now back on the field, their value is going to drop. Be looking at those changes and potential future impact.
- Positional Value. If you haven’t seen our guide on drafting, we suggest going back and having a read, particularly at the section on positional value. Based on available players, the structure of your league and lineups, etc., the best Quarterback does not hold the same value as the best Wide Receiver. Understand the impact of positional value and what that does to the value of those players.
- Trade Charts and Trade Calculators. Whilst there’s not too many of these resources available, some fantasy sites have lists of player values to help you stack up whether a trade is fair. Remember, this is still someone’s opinion and is not gospel. You need to know how you and your league value the players under your league setup.
- Additional roster spots. If you’re offering a trade that has more players on one side than the other, then the number of roster spots plays in to the trade value. If you’re on the side giving up more players then you now have a spare roster spot that you can use for another player, this has value. Conversely, if you’re getting more players then you’ll need to drop another player that isn’t part of the deal to make room for your new additions. If there aren’t players you want to drop then this could be a problem, take this in to account when you’re making your trade deal.
- Draft Stock. This is something that gets less and less important as the season goes on, but remember that some managers will hang on to this as a sign of player value or simply because they can’t bring themselves to consider that they’ve lost value on a high pick. At the start of the season a player being a round one pick may have some importance, but when you get in to the middle of the season that draft stock is now irrelevant. Not everyone will see it that way but it no longer matters what you gave to get them, it matters what their future value is. Don’t get hung up on this.
- Selling High / Buying Low. This is a game of value where the aim is to improve the overall value of your team and therefore get more fantasy points. There’s a simple stock-market approach to doing this, you sell high on players before their value drops and you buy-low on players before their value increases. Of course there are no guarantees that a player you buy-low on is going to improve or that a player you sell high on doesn’t continue to be elite, and you need to make your own assessment on the chances of this happening (or at least listen to the advice of those you trust). And there is the chance that your trade partner views them in exactly the same way so they may be less willing to sell for a bargain price.
Dynasty / Keeper leagues
When it comes to dynasty leagues and keeper leagues, the principles of trading are exactly the same. However, now there is an element of future value involved. You’re no longer looking at the value of a player for the current season, you’re looking at long term value over multiple years and that changes valuations of players. It also increases the level of subjectivity and the variance of personal valuation that managers have on players.
The other important element for dynasty leagues is future draft picks. Now, not only are you including players in the trade but you’re including future draft picks which also have their own values attached to them.
The tricky nuance here, not everyone in your league is trying to win right now. Some teams will be rebuilding and happy to lose in the current season, and they will value draft picks and players differently to the teams that are trying to win now.
Don’t Force It
The final piece of advice when it comes to trading is don’t force it if it’s not right for you. You might be convinced that you need to trade or you might really want a specific player but if the trade on the table is not right for you, you don’t have to agree to it.
Remember, fantasy football is supposed to be fun and you shouldn’t be trading unless you think it’s going to make your team better. Stop trying to ‘win the trade’, offer something that helps the other team and you’ve got a better chance of making it work. If a trade makes your team better and is not egregiously one-sided then you won!
And of course, you can always ask the Yards Per Fantasy team for help and advice any time with our Ask The Expert feature.
Professor: Follow @MattFFBall
