Alex Johnson’s Top-50 2021 Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings
It’s officially my favorite time of year! NFL Draft season. Not only are we getting a brand new crop of talented football players, but we have endlessly debated these players for weeks (and months) and now we finally get to see where they land. While I have been constantly updating my prospect rankings at Yards Per Fantasy for a while now, this is my time to actually put some context and analysis behind each player in my top-50. I hope you enjoy. Even more-so, I want to hear your opinions on these players so “@“ me on Twitter and let’s discuss! I’ll see you on the other side.
1. Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson
Travis Etienne checks a ton of boxes. He was extremely productive and efficient from day one at Clemson. He presents elite athleticism, acceleration, and explosiveness with requisite feature back size. Etienne is at his best when he gets to the edges, but he’s a more than capable runner inside as well. He was dominant as a pass catcher over the last two seasons and will be a featured back in the NFL no matter where he lands. While Najee Harris may be a better pure runner, Etienne’s athleticism gives him quite a bit more upside. He has all the tools to become one of the NFL’s most dangerous weapons and a league-winner in fantasy football. He should be the first pick in all non-superflex dynasty rookie drafts.
2. Najee Harris, RB, Alabama
Najee Harris is far from the fastest or most explosive running back in the 2021 draft class. But at 6-2, 230-pounds, he’s one of the biggest, strongest, and most powerful. Harris was an extremely efficient runner at Alabama and he showed he has the receiving skills to be a dominant three-down threat at the NFL level. He will likely find early second-round draft capital to a team looking to make him their featured back for the next four years. He is neck-and-neck with Travis Etienne at the top of rookie draft boards.
3. Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU
Ja’Marr Chase may have only done it for one year, but that one year was spectacular. He dominated even while playing alongside Vikings rookie sensation Justin Jefferson, even out-producing the older teammate. More importantly, he did it at a young age and in his sophomore campaign. Chase presents the age-adjusted production profile, and skill set to be a team’s WR1. He can produce at all levels of the field and is a contested catch savant. His versatility and football IQ will make him a chess piece that will succeed anywhere he lines up. Chase will be annual top-12 fantasy WR for a long time. He’s the unquestioned top wideout in the 2021 class.
4. Javonte Williams, RB, North Carolina
Javonte Williams excelled in 2020 despite the split backfield with Michael Carter. It was the crescendo of his three year career that saw his production improve every season. Williams is an aggressive, violent, tackle-breaking machine. When Najee Harris and Travis Etienne returned for their senior seasons, we wondered who would emerge as the RB3 of the 2021 class. It turns out, Williams is that guy. He’s a top-five or selection in dynasty rookie drafts and a Day two pick in the NFL.
5. Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota
Rashod Bateman isn’t a burner—but that’s okay. Instead, he excels on short and intermediate routes, using his elite release tactics to separate from his opponents. He’s great at tracking the football and knowing exactly how to position himself to win in contested situations. He was top-10 in deep targets and deep receptions in 2019 so he’s no slouch downfield either. Bateman’s age-adjusted production and market share numbers are excellent. Even in a COVID-shortened season, he maintained high target share and reception share numbers while dominating at a nearly 45-percent rate. Bateman is the top wideout in the class after Ja’Marr Chase. He has everything to be an alpha at the next level and will be a first round pick in both the NFL Draft and dynasty rookie drafts.
6. Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue
Rondale Moore was ultra productive as an 18 year old true freshman. He’s short but not small with elite athleticism. He checks a ton of boxes and has a chance to be a special player in the NFL. If he were a few inches taller we’d be talking about him as the WR1.
7. Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, LSU
Terrace Marshall was productive as a sophomore at LSU, even in the face of target competition from Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. He dominated when given the chance to be “the guy” in 2020 before opting out of the final three games. Marshall caught 10 touchdowns in seven games and averaged nearly seven receptions per outing. He tested extremely well at LSU’s pro day and is one of the bigger wide receivers in the 2021 class. Marshall has only scratched the surface of his potential. With his combination of size, athleticism, versatility, and ability to dominate in traffic, Marshall has as great of a ceiling as any of his classmates. He is locked into the first round of dynasty rookie drafts.
8. Devonta Smith, WR, Alabama
Devonta Smith was incredibly productive over his final two seasons at Alabama. He is extremely talented as a route runner and dynamic with the ball in his hands. Smith will be a top-15 pick in the NFL Draft. His technical skills, athleticism, versatility, and high football IQ will allow him to have an immediate impact in any NFL offense. The concerns lie in his thinly built frame and lack of breakout prior to his junior season. These are two big boxes he fails to check. Why was he out-produced by his fellow sophomores (Jeudy and Ruggs) and a freshman (Waddle) in 2018? It’s a fair question to ask. However, he made up for it thanks to his massive breakout over his final two seasons, so it won’t be enough to keep him out of the first round of both the NFL Draft and dynasty rookie drafts.
9. Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
Jaylen Waddle is one of the most exciting prospects in the 2021 draft class despite his limited production over three seasons. He showed early in his career he can command targets even in the presence of older future first-round teammates around him. He was on pace for a massively productive junior season before the devastating ankle injury. He showed his toughness by gutting it out in the National Championship game, though he was clearly hampered. Waddle possesses elite speed which translates at every level on the offense as well as in the return game. While still undersized, he is bigger and a better prospect than his former Alabama teammate Henry Ruggs. His versatility and explosiveness will help him get on the field and make an impact as a rookie. He will draw first round NFL Draft capital and will make for a quality late-first or early second round selection in dynasty rookie drafts.
10. Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
Kyle Pitts is a freak athlete who would be a stud wide receiver in this class if that was his position. He has a chance to be a dominant tight end in the league. Talent-wise he’s a top-three guy in the class but positional value makes the 10 slot more appropriate.
11. Kenny Gainwell, RB, Memphis
Kenny Gainwell weighed in at over 200lbs at his pro day which is great news—though he’s still a small back at 5-8, 201lbs. He only played one season, but he was dominant during that redshirt freshman campaign. He showed he can produce as a runner while proving to be one of the best pass-catchers out of the backfield in all of college football. Gainwell has the receiving skills to play full-time slot receiver so he will undoubtedly be one of the most versatile backs in the NFL over the next few seasons. He will likely find draft capital on day two. His floor is as a third-down back while his ceiling is Austin Ekeler. Either way, he will be productive for fantasy and well worth a pick at the one-two turn of dynasty rookie drafts.
12. Elijah Moore, WR, Mississippi
Elijah Moore was a dominant producer at Ole Miss, particularly in his final season. The offense ran through him, while he used his big-play ability to run through the heart of opposing defenses. At 5-9, 178lbs, Moore lacks the size to be an alpha at the next level. However, he makes up for it with a special combination of speed and quickness to create instant separation in the middle of the field. He’s slick after the catch and will pose a threat in the return game. Draft capital will likely come on day two, with a chance to squeeze into the first round. Moore will make for a solid pick at the one-two turn in dynasty rookie drafts.
13. Chuba Hubbard, RB, Oklahoma State
Chuba Hubbard ran slower than expected at his pro day which was just another negative added to his resumé since deciding to return to school for the 2020 season. Had he come out a year ago, Hubbard would have been considered among the top backs in the outstanding 2020 class and would have been a first round pick in rookie drafts. Instead, an underwhelming campaign has him a clear step behind Najee Harris, Travis Etienne, and even Javonte Williams. The former Canadian high school football and track star projects as a committee back in the NFL. He’s looking like a mid-second round pick in dynasty rookie drafts.
14. Tylan Wallace, WR, Oklahoma State
Tylan Wallace was massively productive at Oklahoma State. When he was on the field, that is. Wallace missed a significant portion of the 2019 campaign, but otherwise has averaged over 100 yards per game dating back to his sophomore season. That was also his breakout year (at age 19). He’s a vertical threat, despite his undersized frame and struggles vs physical cornerbacks. Wallace is one of the more exciting wide receiver prospects in the class and projects as a day two pick. He’ll find a role as a field stretcher early in his career with an opportunity to expand into a greater role as he refines his game. Wallace is an excellent pick in the middle second round of dynasty rookie drafts.
15. Dyami Brown, WR, North Carolina
Dyami Brown is one of several undersized (185lbs), yet highly productive, wide receivers in the 2021 draft class. He ran a limited route tree at North Carolina where he spent much of his time on the left side of the field running vertical routes. While that may sound like a negative, Brown actually excelled at the niche he was put in, even without prototypical “burner” speed. He is great off the line and projects as a guy who can do more at the NFL level than was asked of him in college. His age-adjusted production profile is one of the strongest in the class and he’s still just 21 years old. Brown will likely find draft capital on Day Two and will make for a solid second round selection in dynasty rookie drafts.
16. Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
Trevor Lawrence is one of the best quarterback prospects we’ve seen in recent seasons. Enough said.
17. Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
I don’t get why Justin Fields has been hated on so much. It’s feeling more and more like he’s going to be the fifth quarterback off the board on draft night. He is a prototype, dual-threat stud who has more fantasy upside than Trevor Lawrence.
18. Jermar Jefferson, RB, Oregon State
Jermar Jefferson was an instant producer at Oregon State with over 1,500 yards as a true freshman. Injuries took their toll in 2019, but he returned with a strong junior season. He showed us early in his career that he can be an effective pass catcher, though he never matched those numbers again. He has the size and vision to be a featured back at the NFL level, but draft capital may hinder his chances of landing a starting gig early on.
19. Elijah Mitchell, RB, Louisiana
Mitchell weighed in a bit lighter than expected at his pro day but he tested extremely well. His 4.40 40-time resulted in an 86th-percentile Speed Score. He also checked in as super explosive and agile with an 88th-percentile Burst Score and 79th-percentile Agility Score. Mitchell showcased that explosion with 12 breakaway runs of 15 yards or more in 2020. While his 6.1-percent College Target Share is only in the 35th-percentile, he showed he’s a capable pass-catcher with a 20 reception season back in 2018.
Mitchell is a good all around back. He’s fast with elite explosiveness and he’s elusive enough to make the first tackler miss. He profiles as a committee back who could emerge as a playmaker in the passing game. Draft capital will likely come mid-to-late day three. He’s certainly a top candidate to be this year’s late-round diamond. He could fall into a lead job on a weak depth chart that sees its top back go down early. Because of this, Mitchell will make for a solid late-second or third round pick in dynasty rookie drafts and a good late-round flier in seasonal leagues.
20. Trey Sermon, RB, Ohio State
Trey Sermon has been a late riser up my board based primarily on projected draft capital and that he’s one of only a few backs after the top three that could step in and take 200 carries. He’s very explosive and agile with the size to be a workhorse. He struggled to find opportunities at Oklahoma but finally broke out with a good 2020 season after transferring to Ohio State.
21. Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida
Kadarius Toney has to be one of the most overrated prospects in the 2021 class. He’s been projected to go in the first round of the NFL Draft. That would be a mistake. While he possesses some unique traits and is a good athlete, his production profile leaves much to be desired. He was a late breakout with a low dominator rating and was inefficient even in his one season of production. He should have an opportunity to contribute right away in the NFL, though, as a returner and gadget player. He’s this high in the rankings due to projected draft capital.
22. Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, USC
Amon-Ra St. Brown is one of the least sexy wide receiver prospects in the 2021 class. He doesn’t have any traits that stand out but that doesn’t mean he’s not a good player. St. Brown broke out as a true freshman at age 18 even while in the presence of other future NFL receivers. He is versatile with a strong route tree. St. Brown projects as a Keenan Allen-type from the slot at the next level. Draft capital will likely come on day two and he’ll make for a high floor selection in the middle of the second round of dynasty rookie drafts.
23. Anthony Schwartz, WR, Auburn
Oh baby is this guy fast. Anthony Schwartz is faster than fast. He’s super raw, but he’s still only 20 years old with plenty of time to develop his skill set. He’ll probably be more of a gadget guy early in his career but could develop into a Curtis Samuel-type over the next few years.
24. Michael Carter, RB, North Carolina
Michael Carter disappointed at his pro day but he still squeaks into the top-24. He was productive as Javonte Williams’ running mate at North Carolina where the two basically had an even split of the backfield. Carter is quite a bit smaller than Williams and projects as more of a satellite back in the NFL. He is super agile and does meet the 200-pound threshold we look for at running back.
25. Pat Freiermuth, TE, Penn State
Pat Freiermuth is the No.2 tight end in the class. The presence of Kyle Pitts means Freiermuth doesn’t get a lot of buzz but he’d make for a good TE1 in a lot of other classes.
26. Amari Rodgers, WR, Clemson
While he may be small in height, Amari Rodgers is a thick 212lbs at 5-9. He’s built like a running back. He runs like one too. He showed us that with his 8.0 yards after catch average in 2020 and nearly 600 career return yards. Rodgers profiles as a guy who can develop into a team’s primary slot receiver. Draft capital will likely come somewhere in the fourth or fifth round of the NFL Draft. He’ll make for a solid selection in the third round of rookie drafts for dynasty managers looking for a sleeper who could return steady production.
27. Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State
Trey Lance is such an interesting prospect. His ceiling is insanely high given his skill set as a true dual-threat quarterback. However, he played at North Dakota State against North Dakota State-level competition and only started 17 games in his career.
28. Nico Collins, WR, Michigan
Nico Collins was a big-play threat both down the field and in the red zone during his time at Michigan. He averaged nearly 20 yards per reception in what turned out to be his final season and converted on more than 50-percent of his contested catch opportunities. In fact, most of his production came from taking advantage of his 6-4, 215-pound frame to bully smaller defenders at the catch point. As we’ve seen from guys like J.J. Arcega-Whiteside and Antonio Gandy-Golden over the last couple years, that style doesn’t translate quite so smoothly to the NFL level. Collins’ production profile is concerning despite the 19.5 breakout age. Sure, his counting stats may have been hampered a bit by poor quarterback play, but he still couldn’t manage a 30-percent dominator or anything close to a significant target share. Collins projects as a situational player called on in the red zone and the occasional deep shot. His performance at his pro day, though, indicate he could develop into more now that he is free of the Harbaugh offense.
29. Kylin Hill, RB, Mississippi State
Kylin Hill is likely to be a running back without a starting chair when the music stops. But that’s okay, he’s more of an RB2 or 1B in a committee anyway. He’s explosive with the requisite size to be a workhorse but his lack of breakaway speed and patience to let his blocks set up, may keep him from ever being a lead dog. His skills as a receiver will help him be fantasy relevant, though, as a team’s primary pass-catcher out of the backfield. Hill will likely find draft capital in the middle rounds of the NFL Draft. He’s a decent flier in the third round of rookie drafts for dynasty gamers looking for a solid depth piece.
30. D’Wayne Eskridge, WR, Western Michigan
D’Wayne Eskridge leaves Western Michigan as a 24-year-old, fifth-year senior. Normally, that would be a red flag that’s hard to overcome. But, Eskridge has a unique profile. He actually broke out as a sophomore at age 20. It was a position change and an injury that caused him to be a late declare. He’s lightning fast and was a focal point in the passing game in 2020. The question doesn’t seem to be can he play—he can. The question is, at 24 years old, does he have much more room to grow or are we getting a guy that is already at his peak development? If that’s the case, then there isn’t a whole lot of upside to get excited about. But with his ability to make splash plays both as a receiver and in the return game, he’s certainly worth a look in the third round of rookie drafts.
31. Tamorrian Terry, WR, Florida State
Tamorrian Terry was a dominant vertical threat at Florida State. But that’s about it. He is an older prospect who redshirted as a freshman. He has below average explosion and agility and ran a route tree that was very limited. His floor is low and I just don’t see a big enough ceiling to make him anything but a speculative selection in a rookie draft.
32. Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
Mac Jones sounds like the favorite to land in San Francisco with the third overall pick. He barely edges out Zach Wilson in my rankings but I’m pretty comfortable with any of these five quarterbacks. It’s a good class.
33. Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
Zach Wilson is a near lock to go No.2 overall to the Jets. He has a high ceiling but a low floor as well.
34. Seth Williams, WR, Auburn
Seth Williams is one of the few big receivers in this class at 6-3, 211lbs. He has a 78th-percentile Dominator rating with an age 18 breakout. He’s not dynamic at all but proved to be a good athlete at Auburn’s pro day.
35. Javian Hawkins, RB, Louisville
Despite carrying the ball nearly 400 times over the last two seasons, Javian Hawkins does not project to a full-time workload at the NFL level. At an undersized 5-9, 183lbs, Hawkins profiles as more of a satellite back. The problem, though, is that he showed limited skills in the receiving game at Louisville. While he improved from 2019 to 2020, he totaled just 21 career receptions. He must prove he has the ability to be a reliable receiver out of the backfield because there just aren’t many opportunities for sub-200lbs backs who don’t bring value on passing downs in the NFL. If he can do that, he has upside due to his electric speed and quickness.
36. Brevin Jordan, TE, Miami
Brevin Jordan is slightly undersized but he’s a decent athlete with a great age-adjusted production profile.
37. Jaelon Darden, WR, North Texas
Jaelon Darden is everyone’s favorite small school sleeper in this class. Unfortunately he didn’t run as fast at his pro day as we had hoped but he still checks enough boxes to like him as a third or early fourth round rookie pick. His Agility Score and Dominator rating are off the charts and he averaged over 16 yards per reception in his final year at North Texas.
38. Shi Smith, WR, South Carolina
Shi Smith is an undersized slot receiver who was a 92nd-percentile dominator at South Carolina. He tested with a 75th-percentile Agility Score and above average burst. His ceiling is low, but he could wind up starting in the slot with steady enough production to be fantasy relevant.
39. Hunter Long, TE, Boston College
Hunter Long is a big (6-5, 254lbs) tight end with good (not great) athleticism. He was very productive over his final two years at Boston College with a 69th-percentile College Dominator and an age 20 breakout. He’ll be a steady producer as an in-line tight end at the NFL level.
40. Chris Evans, RB, Michigan
Chris Evans’ career never lived up to its potential. He’ll look to change that at the NFL level. He’s a good athlete with the size and contact balance to be a productive runner in the league. He possesses the skills to be a reliable contributor on passing downs as well, whether it be as a receiver out of the backfield or in the slot, or in pass protection. With his collegiate career seemingly peaking in 2017, Evans will need an NFL team to take a chance on his physical toolset. Given the opportunity to develop, Evans could become a solid third-down or change-of-pace back at the next level.
41. Marlon Williams, WR, UCF
Marlon Williams waited until his senior year to finally experience a breakout season. He’s not the best athlete and will be primarily deployed as a big slot in the NFL. He’s not great in contested situations, either, and will likely struggle to create separation at the next level. However, he does have some traits to lean on like his ability after the catch and as a returner. Williams has good hands and was a target magnet in 2020. He will likely find late-round draft capital or could even wind up as an undrafted free agent. Either way, he doesn’t present enough upside to use a significant rookie pick on, but you could do a lot worse with your third or fourth-rounder.
42. Demetric Felton, RB, UCLA
Demetric Felton won’t be a bellcow running back at the NFL level. And there’s even a chance he’s asked to play full-time slot WR. But where he can fully maximize his potential is as a Theo Riddick-like hybrid running back who specializes as a pass catcher out of the backfield. His versatility as a runner, receiver, and return specialist will drive him up NFL Draft boards and will make for a future flex play in our fantasy lineups.
43. Jaret Patterson, RB, Buffalo
Jaret Patterson was extremely productive at Buffalo with an insane 178.7 rushing yards per game in 2020. The problem is, he caught just 20 passes in his career and zero—yes, zero, in 2020. He’s also undersized for a grinder back at 5-6, 195lbs and didn’t exactly have the toughest competition.
44. Khalil Herbert, RB, Virginia Tech
Khalil Herbert didn’t break 1,000 yards or double-digit receptions until his fifth season. But he’s a decent athlete with enough size to be a workhorse back given the opportunity.
45. Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, Oklahoma
Rhamondre Stevenson is a big back with a powerful stiff arm and impressive spin move. He doesn’t have any elite traits but runs with good contact balance, rarely going down on the first hit. While he’s not a dynamic receiver or much of a route-runner, he showed he can be competent when thrown the football. Draft capital likely won’t be in his favor with a projection of sometime on day three and he’s unlikely to land a starting gig in the NFL. Stevenson projects as more of an RB2 or, at most, the thunder to a small, faster back’s lighting. He’ll settle in as a late-third, early fourth rounder in dynasty rookie drafts.
46. Sage Surratt, WR, Wake Forest
Sage Surratt is one of the most physical wide receivers in the 2021 draft class. He uses that physicality and his 6-3, 215-pound frame to win at the catch point and dominate in contested catch situations. In fact, Surratt converted on 18-of-30 contested situations in 2019. But the fact that he had 30 opportunities is a red flag and due to his struggle to separate consistently. His lack of athleticism makes it difficult to project him as anything more than a situational red zone play which limits his upside as a fantasy asset. The NFL game is quickly trending away from guys like this. We’ve seen players like J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, for example, struggle to carve out a role in a similar mold. There will be players with comparable production profiles but higher ceilings I’d rather take in the later rounds of dynasty rookie drafts.
47. Larry Rountree, RB, Missouri
Larry Rountree is one of the least athletic backs in this class but he has the size and ability to handle a heavy workload—though I doubt he’ll ever get that opportunity.
48. Tutu Atwell, WR, Louisville
Tutu Atwell broke out at age 18, averaged 16 yards per reception, and holds a 75th-pecentile Dominator rating with a 96th-percentile College Target Share. That’s the good news. The bad news is, he’s extremely tiny at 5-9, 155lbs. He would have to be a major outlier to hit at the NFL level at his size. Because of that, he’s more than a round below consensus in my rankings. I likely won’t have any Tutu Atwell in dynasty and I’m completely okay with it.
49. Simi Fehoko, WR, Stanford
Simi Fehoko is a big dude at 6-4, 222lbs. He ran a 4.49 40 which resulted in a 95th-percentile Speed Score. He also has great lateral movement especially for a guy of his size with a 72nd-percentile Agility Score. Fehoko was a late breakout and is already 23 years old, but he checks a lot of the other boxes we look for in a wide receiver prospect. It’s enough to slip him into the top-50.
50. Ihmir Smith-Marsette, WR, Iowa
Ihmir Smith-Marsette is not the biggest, or the fastest, but he’s explosive with a 75th-percentile Dominator Rating and age 20 breakout. He was dynamic both as a runner and kick returner at Iowa.
