DraftKings Thanksgiving Slate Breakdown
Turkey Day has always held a special place in the hearts of daily fantasy players. In 2020, it may be even more true, as most of us won’t be able to spend the holiday with the friends and family we normally would. Since it’s a short slate, I’ll break down each position group for all six teams and talk about ownership and leverage. Let’s talk some Thanksgiving Draftkings.
There are three games on the slate:
- HOU @ DET
- WAS @ DAL
- BAL @ PIT
Lines & Odds Breakdown:
We can basically split the six teams into two groups of three based on matchup. Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Washington are defenses we avoid, Detroit, Dallas, and Houston are defenses we target. The Detroit-Houston game is going to be the most popular game that DFS players will target, with a 51.5-point total.
***Wednesday Update: The BAL @ PIT game has been postponed to Sunday and is no longer a part of this slate.***
Quarterback
The safest and most popular QB on the slate is going to be Deshaun Watson ($7,400). He has a Detroit defense that allowed 258 yards to XFL star P.J. Walker last week and 390 to Alex Smith two weeks ago. Watson is coming off a 34.36-point outing against New England in Week 11. In cash games, I expect him to exceed 50% ownership. In GPPs, that will be depressed a bit, but will still be high. I think he’s still a valid GPP option just because the other big names at QB have rough matchups. If the PIT-BAL game in particular is low-scoring, lineups without Watson could be completely left in the dust. I think you can play Watson in tournaments and differentiate your lineups elsewhere.
Matthew Stafford ($5,800) offers significant savings on the other end of the matchup from Watson. However, he’s coming off a horrendous game in which he scored just 7.62 points and the Lions were shutout by a Panthers defense that hadn’t held a team under 23 points in five weeks. Stafford was a limited participant in practice all week with a right thumb injury and it clearly affected him. If healthy, he’s a legitimate option in cash given the savings he offers from Watson. He also works as a pivot off of Watson in GPPs for some correlation exposure to Watson.
Andy Dalton ($5,600) gave the Cowboys some life last week, throwing for 3 TDs in the win. With his lack of mobility and the Washington pass rush mismatch against his offensive line though, he’s a dart throw only. Alex Smith ($5,400) hasn’t shown a ton of upside since coming back, as miraculous as it is that he’s playing in the first place. The Dallas defense is one that can allow a big game to anyone, though, so there’s appeal to Smith in GPPs.
Running Back
Another reason Watson is a lock in cash? There are no RBs or WRs priced above $7,000. Ezekiel Elliott ($6,800) is close to a lock as well. His price is depressed due to the team’s offensive struggles, but he’s still getting 20 touches/game. In this game, we should see an emphasis on him to slow down the Washington pass rush. Tony Pollard ($4,000) is minimum-priced and has a role in this backfield, with 8 carries per game over the last five games. He has big play ability and is a low-probability pivot off of other low-priced backs on this slate that will be more highly owned.
D’Andre Swift’s ($6,500) status is one of the big question marks of the slate. Swift finally took charge of the Detroit backfield, playing 73% of snaps and taking 16 of 21 carries in Week 10. He added 5 receptions (2nd-most on the team). Swift missed Week 11 in concussion protocol, and Adrian Peterson ($4,700) and Kerryon Johnson ($4,300) combined for 13 carries for a miserable 35 yards in Swift’s absence. Houston allows a league-worst 5.1 yards per carry, so there’s production to be had. I expect Peterson to be higher owned as he’s been ahead of Johnson in the pecking order all season. However, Johnson played 39 snaps to Peterson’s 17 in Week 11, so I think he’s the play if Swift is out.
Antonio Gibson ($6,000) figures to be quite chalky. Dallas’ defense has put two solid performances together in recent weeks but still represents a solid matchup on this slate. Gibson has five rushing touchdowns in his last four games. J.D. McKissick is still the better pass-blocker and in a negative gamescript situation, will play the majority of the snaps. In this game, we can probably predict Washington will keep it close and Gibson will lead the way. In these teams’ first meeting, Gibson ran for a season-high 128 yards.
Duke Johnson Jr. ($5,700) hasn’t excelled in David Johnson’s absence, scoring 11.9 DK points combined in two games. Detroit is a matchup he can excel in; they’ve allowed a rushing TD in every game since Week 1. Given the other matchups on this slate, Johnson should go relatively underowned in GPPs, and could present value if he finds the end zone or a receiving game role.
Wide Receivers
The top WR on the slate is Terry McLaurin ($7,000). McLaurin has 7 targets in every game this season and 60 yards in all but one. He’s a viable cash option in normal slates; on this shortened one, he’s worth building around. After McLaurin, there’s not much in the Washington receiving corps, though there’s always merit to fading a highly-owned WR, especially at McLaurin’s price. Cam Sims played 84% of snaps last week, but registered just 2 targets for 20 yards. In fact, the WRs with the next-most targets on the entire season are Isaiah Wright and Dontrelle Inman ($3,100) with 27. Inman is the clear #2 in this offense if healthy. He missed Week 11, but if he returns on Thanksgiving, could offer big return on his near-minimum salary.
With Watson the best QB on the slate, it make sense to pair him with a weapon, especially in cash, where stacking may be necessary to overcome Watson’s ownership. Will Fuller ($6,400) had a touchdown in six straight games before Week 10, and has 8 targets each in the last two games. With no more Hopkins, Fuller has a very reliable role in this offense. So too does his counterpart, Brandin Cooks ($5,300). Cooks has nearly 9 targets per game over his last six and has found the end zone three times. The third option in this offense, whether it’s Randall Cobb ($3,400) or Keke Coutee ($3,400), isn’t reliable enough for cash if we don’t need the savings, but could make for a good differentiator in Watson GPP lineups.
The Dallas WR room is another crowded one. Amari Cooper ($5,700) and CeeDee Lamb ($5,400) are the top two options. Both have 13 targets in the last two games, but Lamb has been the better fantasy producer, with TDs in both games. Lamb is the trendier pick, but Cooper has the lower aDoT, so could see increased use to neutralize the WAS pass rush. Michael Gallup ($3,500) is also just too cheap for me to ignore. He has 12 targets the last two games (and had 12 in the game three weeks ago), but has converted those targets into just 5 receptions. He’s getting targets, so I really like him as an under-the-radar play.
Kenny Golladay ($6,000) has missed time with a hip injury, and is part of a banged-up Lions receiving corps that is also missing Danny Amendola. I don’t expect him to play Thursday, but if he does, he’s a legitimate option (and boosts Stafford’s stock). Marvin Jones Jr. ($5,400) is the de facto #1 receiver if Golladay is out, and two weeks ago produced 8 receptions for 96 yards and a TD. Stafford’s health will be important here, but Jones should be a reliable play that could go under the radar. A GPP option is speedster Marvin Hall ($3,900). Hall played 68% of snaps last week and is exactly the type of player who can break a small slate if he catches a long TD.
Tight Ends
In WAS-DAL, we have two more decent options. Dalton Schultz ($3,800) has 6+ targets on 90%+ snaps in the last three games. He hasn’t topped 53 yards since October 4, so he’s unlikely to pay off salary unless he scores. However, he does have a role in the red zone, getting three targets there last week. Playing Logan Thomas ($3,500) was a bad habit of mine early in the season, and it may be one I go back to this week. He has four targets in every game this season and has double-digit points in three of his last five games. Thomas also has with four red zone opportunities in that span. He caught four balls for 60 yards and a TD the first time these teams met.
T.J. Hockensen ($4,700) leads the Lions in targets, receptions, and receiving TDs on the season. He has just one game under 9.3 points on the season. On a short slate, that kind of reliability is valuable. If Golladay is out, Hockensen is probably the best cash play on the slate. Jordan Akins ($2,900) is coming off a 5-catch, 83-yard day in Week 11, but had just 1 catch for 5 yards the week before that. He’s too volatile to use in cash, but his athleticism and red-zone potential make him a decent bet for a TD and way to differentiate your Watson lineups.
Defense/Special Teams
It’s slim pickings without Baltimore or Pittsburgh on the slate.
I like Washington ($3,700) this week as I did in Week 7 for their first matchup against Dallas, when they registered 6 sacks and a safety en route to 17 DK points. Betting on a repeat performance is unlikely but they still should be productive, and should be by far the highest-owned DST. On the other side, Alex Smith is famously turnover-adverse, so I wouldn’t have high hopes for a Cowboys ($2,800) defense averaging 2.7 ppg.
The game with the highest total, expectedly, has the two lowest-priced defenses. Houston ($2,700) and Detroit ($2,200) are probably not to be touched in cash, though are always viable GPP punts because on Thanksgiving, anything can happen.
