Week 4 Review: Looking Back At Projections
Ok, who had Teddy Bridgewater as a top 5 QB and Tim Patrick as a top 10 WR? Anyone?
It happens every week, there are players that spring from nowhere and players who happen to catch the touchdowns. There are players we project for big weeks that get injured or whose situation changes through a QB change or through a lucky play that flips the gamescript.
Related | Week 4 Injury Review: Fantasy Impact
What’s important is not to chase the points but to understand what happened and, more importantly, why it happened. That’s where this weekly series comes in. I look back at my projections for the week and assess what differed, why it differed and try to draw some conclusions on what we can project in the next week.
As always, I’m not going to spend time working through waiver wire adds, or buy low/sell high candidates, but instead I’m going to take a retrospective look at the assumptions I used for my weekly projections. I’ll pick out where I was significantly different, where I was close, and some of the players that sit at either end of some key stats on the week. Let’s get into the Week 4 review.
Oh my!
I’m not part of the formal accuracy competition but if I was, I’d have ranked 2nd this week on the @FantasyPros accuracy leaderboard!
My weekly rankings are available on @YardsPer each week, first cut before the Thursday night game and updated through the weekend pic.twitter.com/ZgOgoxLS7F— Matt FF (@MattFFball) October 7, 2020
Week 4 Review: Team play counts
Key Stats
- Highest: Dallas Cowboys (79 plays)
- Lowest: Los Angeles Chargers (50 plays)
- Average: 63 plays
The Dallas Cowboys are once again the team running the most offensive plays and that’s probably no great surprise when we consider that they’re throwing for their lives to stay in games.
I’ve been noting for the last couple of weeks that overall play volume across the league is up from 2019 and that trend continued in week 4. There were only 5 teams with more than 70 plays in week 4 (down from 8 in week 3) but there were plenty of teams sitting just behind that mark, with 21-percent of teams in that highest category and 58-percent of teams with greater than 60. That put the average number of plays for week 4 at 63, up from 62 last week and from 61 in 2019.
I’ll say it again, more teams are running more plays. And we need to take this in to account when doing projections.
15 teams hit the over on their vegas implied totals (down from 23 last week and 21 in week 2), 5 of these by double digits. I posited last week that so many teams hitting the over was an indication of the increased play volume but that has dropped a little this week. It’s still half of teams hitting the over and I have to assume that vegas is getting better at predicting the lines. I’m still not 100-percent on the ‘why’ they are playing faster. My previous working theory was rusty defenses, I’ll also throw in less fans in the stadiums (less noise, easier to get the play calls out and snap the ball quicker?).
At the low end, week 4 saw the highest low total of the year (that makes sense right?!). In other words, the 50 plays run by the Chargers was the lowest of the week and it’s the first time this year that all teams have hit that 50 mark. The Chargers only managed less plays than this once in 2019.
Other notable teams to look at:
- Arizona – had their lowest play volume of the season so far and have been gradually creeping down every week so far
- Buffalo – settling in to a steady play volume with 58, 54 and 58 over the last 3 weeks
- Chicago – with a new QB under centre, they had their highest play volume of the year
- Kansas City – had their lowest play volume of the season
- Minnesota – back-to-back weeks of 60+ plays after struggling to get on the field in the first two weeks
- Philadelphia – the normally high-volume offense had their lowest total of the year and only had fewer plays once in 2019
Key Takeaway – I over-compensated a touch in week 4 with my projections generally being higher than the actuals. However, 24 of 30 teams were within 10 plays so overall accuracy is looking pretty good. Oh, and I got Seattle and Baltimore spot on.
Week 4 Review: Pass Attempts
Key Stats
- Highest: Dallas Cowboys (58 attempts – 76-percent passing)
- Lowest: Minnesota Vikings (22 attempts – 35-percent passing)
- Average: 36 pass attempts
I wrote above about Dallas’ play volume continuing to hit the top of the pile and with that terrible defense it’s no surprise to see them top of the pass-attempts chart as well. It’s shoot-outs every week in Dallas at the minute so while that continues, the pass attempts will be high and that’s great news for Dak and the receiving options. Dak has beaten his career high in pass attempts in the last two games.
It’s the run-heavy teams at the bottom of this list so no great surprises. Minnesota, New Orleans, Baltimore, Indianapolis and Cleveland will continue to fight for bottom spot all year. A total of six teams had a less than 50-percent pass ratio in week 4.
As I keep noting, this metric will always be gamescript driven so the trick is going to be getting that right. The reliance is still on the Vegas over/under and implied team totals to drive my projection totals so getting that right is going to help to get closer.
My biggest miss this week was the Saints. I knew they’d be on the low side but they elected to let Kamara carry the ball this week rather than throwing it to him, so that pass-percentage dropped significantly. On the opposite end, the 49ers were in an unexpected tight game and threw at a rate that they only topped once in 2019. The Nick Mullens effect? Maybe!
Key Takeaway – 21 of 30 teams had a pass-ratio within 10-percent of projection this week; 10 were less than 5-percent off; and only 1 within 1-percent. No perfect projections this week but both Seattle and Baltimore were 1 pass attempt off.
Rush Attempts
- Highest: New Orleans Saints (42 attempts)
- Lowest: Chicago Bears (16 attempts)
- Average: 27 rush attempts
As always, I’ve covered the ratios above so I’ll look at some pure numbers. The Bears and Cowboys were the only teams with less than 20 rush attempts in week 4, which is all about gamescript for both. With Foles under centre for the Bears, this might be a trend to watch out for and as detailed already in this article, the Cowboys defense needs to step up if they want to start running the ball more (and Zeke needs to hold on to it when he does).
The Jaguars are consistenly in this zone as well and I don’t expect this to change significantly given the position they’re going to be in every week. It’s the usual suspects at the top as noted above, with the Panthers, Bengals and Broncos all managing to sneak in to the top 10 this week. They benefited from the gamescript so it at least tells us that they’re willing to go that way when they get the opportunity.
Key Takeaway – all looking pretty obvious and predictable now with a few exceptions. I’m looking closely at the teams changing QB to see how their tendencies are impacted.
Intended Air Yards per Attempt (IAY/A)
- Highest: Lamar Jackson (15.2 yards per attempt)
- Lowest: Dwayne Haskins (4.4 yards per attempt)
- Average: 8.2 Intended Air Yards per Attempt
Once again I’m not being completely honest with you. Lamar Jackson isn’t top of the week 4 list, he’s third. His team-mate RG3 is top with a token long bomb against his former team, and the Browns QB1 (Jarvis Landry) is second with his touchdown pass to OBJ.
But Lamar’s 15.2 IAY/A is his career high by 4 yards. He’s had a strange start to the season, struggled last week against the Chiefs and now airing it out against Washington. They won the game easily but I’m not convinced this was a solid strategy here, they need to settle down and get their game back together. Kirk Cousins has got himself up the top with a change in gameplan over the last couple of weeks. It’s now back to dominating on the ground and throwing some deep shots for the Vikings.
At the bottom of the scale, Jackson’s opponent Dwayne Haskins had a lowly 4.4 IAY/A. I’m not going to dwell too much on Haskins but I am going to point out who was next on the list…Josh Allen. That’s one of the lowest of his career. Remember, this is a guy who is known for having a cannon-arm and was top 10 in this metric through the first few weeks of the season, so this is a surprise. He did maintain a completion percentage over 70 and no-one will argue he’s playing well, so whatever works Josh!
For those wanting to know about Drew Brees, he jumped in to the top 10 this week with 9.3 but this is likely reflective of the low passing volume, much like Kirk Cousins.
When I compare the results against my projections, I can see that 65-percent were within 2 yards of expectation (last week was 75-percent). 39-percent were within a yard (last week was 41-percent) and 8 QBs were within 0.5 yards (same as last week). No perfect landings this week but I was only 0.1 yards off Dak.
Unhealthy obsession with Patrick Mahomes IAY/A update (needs a better title). I have previously surmised that he has a low IAY/A in games against elite DBs and in some cases elite DEs, which was the case in the first few weeks. There was a strong argument that a matchup with Stephon Gilmore should have seen it low again but he was up at 10.7, third on the list. I’ll leave this theory alone for now.
Key Takeaway – still some volatility in teams changing QB that is affecting the result but a nice takeaway on the low pass-volume QBs here where we can potentially expect the likes of Cousins and Brees to have a higher IAY/A in games where they run more.
Targets
Top Targets
| 1 | Amari Cooper | 16 |
| 2 | George Kittle | 15 |
| 3 | Terry McLaurin | 14 |
| = 4 | Keenan Allen | 12 |
| = 4 | Darren Waller | 12 |
| = 4 | DeVante Parker | 12 |
Target Market Share (Percentage of Team’s Target Share)
| 1 | Keenan Allen | 48 |
| 2 | Adam Thielen | 45 |
| 3 | George Kittle | 37 |
| 4 | Emmanuel Sanders | 36 |
| 5 | Marquise Brown | 35 |
There’s some stability and familiarity starting to appear in these lists now. There’s also a couple of surprises, one of which being Amari Cooper who is the overall WR2 in PPR after four games. He saw more targets than anyone else in the league but didn’t crack the top 5 when it comes to market share on his team. All roads lead back to the high-powered Dallas offense so while that stays the same, there will be plenty of targets for Cooper and the other Cowboys receivers.
George Kittle is back and in a big way. 15 targets, 37-percent market share. The 49ers did throw more than usual in this game but the market share shows that Kittle was going to be the main man either way. They’re not exactly flush with high-powered wide receivers in San Francisco so Kittle is the number one receiving option and wouldn’t be surprised to see him in these lists more often.
Terry McLaurin is another stud receiver who is the clear number one target on his team and seems to be matchup proof. He barely missed out on the market share table too, and could be pushing to be on these lists on a weekly basis.
With Herbert at the helm, Keenan Allen is going to get the majority of the targets, especially now Ekeler is out too. 48-percent of his team’s market share is huge and pretty closely followed by Adam Thielen’s 45-percent. A slight word of caution with Thielen who doesn’t appear on the top targets list despite his market share. This is reflective of the low pass-volume in the Vikings offense so although Thielen is the main man, there is somewhat of a limitation on those target numbers.
Like Kittle, Darren Waller is starting to become a regular fixture in this section as the Raiders don’t really like to throw to anyone else with most of their top receivers out injured. And the top list is rounded out with DeVante Parker who, as expected, took advantage of a terrible Seahawks secondary to get plenty of targets from DGAF Fitzpatrick.
Emmanuel Sanders and Marquise Brown are surprising names for us to be talking about here. They saw 36 and 35-percent of their team’s targets respectively, which looks a lot. But this is, again, another example of the lower pass-volume teams. When you look at the pure numbers, both receivers saw less than 10 targets. Still good volume but nowhere near the heights that it looks like when you look at the market share table.
A few other notable receivers who saw double digit targets and almost 30-percent market share:
- Robby Anderson – establishing himself as the WR1 in the Panthers team
- Damiere Byrd – became the main target this week but this could change with Cam back
- Evan Engram – many have given up on him but with Shepard out and some good matchups ahead, don’t give up just yet
Key Takeaway – need to look out for the low volume, high market share players to ensure those scenarios are captured in projections. As always, certain QBs lock on to their main targets so no need to change that expectation.
Carries
Top Carries
| 1 | Dalvin Cook | 27 |
| 2 | Joe Mixon | 25 |
| 3 | Melvin Gordon | 23 |
| 4 | Ronald Jones | 20 |
| 5 | Alvin Kamara | 19 |
Carry Market Share (Percentage of Team’s Carry Share)
| 1 | James Robinson | 85 |
| 2 | Devin Singletary | 75 |
| 3 | Joe Mixon | 74 |
| = 3 | Ronald Jones | 74 |
| 5 | Melvin Gordon | 72 |
What a list this is. It feels like we’ve gone back in time but we have Joe Mixon, Melvin Gordon and Ronald Jones all at the top of the pile in both carries and market share.
Melvin Gordon was also boosted by gamescript and some poor defense from the Jets, especially on the long touchdown at the end of the game that really put Gordon over the top. Phillip Lindsay is due back any time so I’d expect this volume to drop. Nice to see you Melvin, come back soon.
Similarly, Ronald Jones might not be long for this series. Firstly, Fournette will be due back in the next couple of weeks and push for a starting berth but you also need to add in Ke’Shawn Vaughn who finally got on the field and caught a touchdown in week 4. With Jones’ inability to catch a pass, you’d better believe that Brady is going to be in Bruce’s ear this week, so don’t be surprised to see Jones dropping down the pecking order as quickly as he drops passes.
At the very top, Dalvin Cook shows himself to be the bell-cow that was drafted. He doesn’t hit the top of market share but that’s reflective of the sheer volume of running plays that the Vikings run. Cook needs to be spelled so Mattison comes in and takes some plays, this is exactly what happened last year and helped Cook become one of the best backs to roster in fantasy.
Alvin Kamara also squeaks on to the list based on team volume. He’s not a bell-cow running back and a large part of his contribution is in the passing game (last week Latavius Murray got 60-percent of the carries as Kamara was more of a receiver) so he won’t necessarily be a staple in this series despite his weekly RB1 upside. But with New Orleans running the ball so much, even a low market share can put him up there in carries.
James Robinson still has the highest market share of all running backs and looks like he’ll continue to do so as just about the only option in Jacksonville. The problem is going to be team rushing volume with Jacksonville playing from behind so often. Robinson does get involved in the passing game so will continue to provide a solid return for your fantasy team but it could often see him in the market share leaders without being in the carry leaders.
Finally, Devin Singletary benefitted from having the backfield to himself this week. If Moss continues to miss time then Singletary will be a great option in a high-functioning offense right now. Goal-line looks will be an issue with Josh Allen on the field and he’s happy to throw downfield, but Singletary will get the market share until Moss returns.
Honourable mention for Jerick McKinnon who got 70-percent of carries in San Francisco. When was the last time we said any 49ers running back got 70-percent of team carries? And for a guy who has struggled with injury, it’s great to see. He’s another player to benefit from injuries to his team-mates and they could be on their way back, but McKinnon has staked a claim to be a key part of this offense.
Key Takeaway – there’s still a little under half of teams with a running back taking 60-percent or more of the carries but there’s a bunch of these who are benefiting from injuries. There’s volume issues around and a potential return to RBBC as injured players recover. For those who had big weeks but have competition returning from injury, see if you can sell them now.
Week 4 Review: Summary
We’re getting a clearer picture of how teams want to play and are starting to understand the trends of which defenses can be exploited and which have just had a bad day here or there. Establishing these patterns will help work out where gamescript can be exploited for volume and, more importantly, pass ratios. This is still the biggest needle-mover in these projections so getting that right will make a big difference.
Adapting to some Quarterback changes and coach firings (looking at you Houston) will be key and we really don’t want to see anyone else get sidelined by injury or Covid.
Now, who are going to be the crazy left-field players to finish top of the charts in week 5?!
