DraftKings Week 2 Main Slate Breakdown
Welcome to Overeaction Week in the NFL. While some of what we saw in Week 1 will have staying power, a lot of it was matchup and situation-dependent or random variance. For that reason, our pre-season priors should still drive much of our decision making.
Related | Week 1 DraftKings Main Slate Recap
The core part of daily fantasy for most players is cash games: contests with a flat-payout structure across cashing positions. The strategy behind these games is simple: Maximize your expected points. This article will break down my favorite players of the week and discuss some lineup construction to figure out the best way to put your lineup in the top half of the standings.
In Week 2, we have the biggest Main Slate possible; a full 13-game slate.
Byes: None
Thursday Night Football: CIN @ CLE
Sunday Night Football: NE @ SEA
Monday Night Football: NO @ LV
Main Slate Teams Vegas Breakdown:
Quarterback
Last week I said he quarterback discussion will start every week with Lamar Jackson ($8,200).That holds in Week 2 after he put up a strong showing in Week 1. Next up he gets a Houston defense that just allowed three TDs to Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes likely could have had a bigger day if Kansas City hadn’t had so much success on the ground as well; something that won’t hold Jackson back. With a 51-point total, this game has shootout potential, and Baltimore’s implied total of 29 points is the highest on the slate.
Week 2 Rankings!
My favorite QB range is a bit lower though, particularly since pricing is a bit tighter this week and we may need the savings. Kyler Murray ($6,100) is my favorite play here, after his price came down $300 despite scoring 27.3 points against a stout 49ers defense. Washington’s pass rush caused all sorts of problems against Philadelphia, but Murray’s elusiveness should give him an edge. A safer play, however, may be Dak Prescott ($6,800), who gets a Atlanta defense that was torched by Russell Wilson for the week’s best QB performance in Week 1. Prescott’s lackluster Week 1 output may have people soured on him, but that’s the spot we want to take advantage of in Week 2. Atlanta won’t be able to pressure him like Aaron Donald and the Rams did, so I expect Dak to have a big day.
Josh Allen ($6,700) has to be mentioned in this space as well, as he’s coming off a 33-point game and now gets a Miami defense that gave up a big game to Cam Newton, who boasts a similar skill set to Allen.
Murray will likely be as low as I go for cash, however if you need some extra savings, Mitchell Trubisky ($5,500) had a solid output against Detroit in Week 1. That’s a plus matuchup, but the Giants defense shouldn’t be too much better. Mitch’s rushing floor makes him somewhat viable in cash, and he has had ceiling games in the past.
Running Back
Unlike last week, Week 2’s RB discussion does not start with Christian McCaffrey. He’s still $10,000 and has a less-than-ideal matchup with a Buccaneers team he struggled with in 2019. I also would prefer to see his target share come up closer to 2019 levels before investing in him.
Instead, the top players in consideration for me are Ezekiel Elliott ($8,200) and Derrick Henry ($7,900). Zeke looked quick in Week 1, racking up 27.7 points on 25 touches, 3 of which were receptions. Dallas is tied for the second-highest total on the slate so the points should be there again. Henry, meanwhile, has one of the safest workloads in the game after getting 31 carries in Week 1. I’m generally not big on playing players as uninvolved in the passing game as Henry is. However, Tennessee is an 8.5-point favorite, so game script should be in Henry’s favor. Henry also had 3 receptions, which is an encouraging sign for his floor.
Fitting both of those guys in will be tough. However, there are some mid-priced options that are promising. My (and the rest of the industry’s) favorite is Jonathan Taylor ($5,700). With Marlon Mack going to IR with an achilles injury, Taylor will step into the feature role. Nyheim Hines will be involved. Taylor, however, got 6 receptions in his debut, and while he wasn’t productive on the ground, Minnesota could have more holes. The Packers ran 32 times for 154 yards on them in Week 1.
$200 up from Taylor is Kenyan Drake ($5,900). I’m personally a Drake skeptic, but his price has come down $500 from Week 1 after a rough matchup with San Francisco. I think this is too cheap for him based on how he finished 2019, averaging 32 DK ppg over the last three weeks. The concerning thing with Drake is Chase Edmonds’ ($4,600) role. Drake got just three targets in Week 1; Edmonds got five. There’s a portion of #WatchTheFilm twitter that believes Edmonds is the better back; but the safe money in Week 2 is on Drake regaining his old role.
Another backfield committee of interest is in Tampa Bay. Ronald Jones ($5,200) got 17 of 22 backfield carries in Week 1, as well as 3 targets. Now he gets a Carolina defense that was torched by Josh Jacobs for 35.9 fantasy points. The concern, of course, is Leonard Fournette ($4,800). Fournette had the largest week-to-week decrease of all running backs, with his price tumbling $1,200 from Week 1. However, Jones looks to have a lock on the feature role for the time being, and he’s cheap enough in a prime matchup that he’s cash-viable.
The lowest I’ll be going in cash is D’Andre Swift ($4,900). While he was outcarried by Adrian Peterson (14 carries) and Kerryon Johnson (7 carries), he quietly led the backfield in snaps 34, with Peterson and Johnson getting 24 and 20, respectively. Swift’s 5 targets also indicates he has a role in the passing game. As 6-point underdogs against Green Bay, there’s a good chance the Lions find themselves in a game script that benefits Swift.
My GPP sleeper for the week? Green Bay’s Aaron Jones ($7,100). The Packers made some news, spending a second-round pick on AJ Dillon despite having Jones and Jamal Williams. Jones was the lead back in Week 1, however, with 16 carries and 6 targets. His lackluster line (17.6 points) will likely make him underowned in GPPs, but he has big upside and the matchup to explode.
Wide Receivers
Starting at the top, Davante Adams ($8,200) is the goal in cash after getting 17 targets in Week 1. The status of Kenny Golladay ($6,200), who is doubtful, will be key here, as I’d feel more comfortable with paying up for Adams in cash if Detroit had the weapons to keep up in a shootout. His price is also up $800 from Week 1, which typically isn’t a situation to target. However I think we can roll with him with confidence here if we can afford him.
Allen Robinson ($6,400) is in play as well. Robinson made some headlines this week over a request for a new contract, so there’s a possibility he gets fed here. He got 9 targets in Week 1, so he has a safe workload regardless, but this is an explosion spot.
The most intriguing part of the slate is the Dallas wide receiver corps. Amari Cooper ($6,300) has a $700 discount from Week 1, despite catching 10 passes on 14 targets. This is a strange price movement and one that presents a lot of value on its face. CeeDee Lamb ($4,700) had an impressive debut, catching 5 receptions for 59 yards. As the cheapest option, I expect him to get decent ownership in GPPs but there are too many mouths to feed in this offense for me to be comfortable playing the rookie in cash. Michael Gallup ($5,600) had a the most disappointing Week 1 of the three, with just 3 receptions for 50 yards. I expect Gallup to be the lowest owned and therefore the best GPP option, but Cooper has the most value in cash.
The trio on the other side of the ball has just as much upside. Julio Jones ($7,400) is always in play in any format, especially as the Cowboys don’t have a corner that can keep up with him after losing Byron Jones in the offseason. Jones is on a $300 discount from Week 1 despite catching 9 balls for 157 yards. On the flip side, Calvin Ridley ($6,800) got a $700 bump after 9 receptions for 130 yards. Russell Gage ($4,800), also got a price bump of $500 after 9 receptions for 114 yards. He has the most uncertain workload moving forward, but would still seem to present value in this matchup.
In order to afford some of the higher priced players above, we’ll need some value at WR. Luckily, In addition to Gage, there’s a good bit in wide receivers that saw high volume games in Week 1 and should be in a position to repeat their roles in Week 2:
- Diontae Johnson ($4,500) got 10 targets to lead all Pittsburgh players Monday Night. Salaries are released before Monday night games, so in theory, Johnson represents a value even on DraftKings’ pricing algorithm.
- Parris Campbell ($4,500) got 9 targets to lead Indianapolis receivers along with T.Y. Hilton. He gets a Minnesota defense that was torched by Green Bay in Week 1.
- Christian Kirk ($4,300) caught just one ball for no gain in Week 1, but received 5 targets and was in on 77% of snaps. DeAndre Hopkins dominated the Arizona passing game, but Kirk should still have a role in this offense moving forward, and the week he’s on a $700 discount could be the spot to play him
- Mike Williams ($4,200) also got 9 targets against Cincinnati. Kansas City has a tight pass defense, but game script should benefit Williams and he has the potential to put up big numbers.
- Quintez Cephus ($3,800) got 10 targets playing 79% of snaps filling in for Kenny Golladay in Week 1. He gets a more generous defense in Green Bay in Week 2; if Golladay misses again, He could easily return value on a salary that just isn’t high enough.
Tight Ends
TE is typically where we get our savings to pay up for those high-priced RBs.
Mark Andrews ($6,300) was the overall TE2 in Week 1, catching two touchdowns. He did have just 6 targets, so there is some reason to be weary about his volume, but Baltimore only attempted 25 passes in the game; in a closer game, there will be more opportunity.
I expect Logan Thomas ($3,600) to be the highest-owned TE on the slate, and he’ll be in my cash lineup as well. Thomas got 8 targets in Week 1, leading the team. Even if we can’t expect that kind of volume moving forward, he won’t need it to pay off his salary. Arizona plays fast and should score points on offense, so there will be opportunity for Thomas.
A likely lower-owned option at a similar price point will be Chris Herndon ($3,400) again. Herndon caught 6 passes on 7 targets in Week 1, but only for 37 yards. His matchup doesn’t get any easier, going from last year’s #6 defense by DVOA to #2, but that kind of volume should produce value at his price.
Defense/Special Teams
Generally, I’ll try to find three options at Defense at various price points, and plug the one I can afford after filling the other eight spots in my lineup. The priority here isn’t limiting points: all it takes is two touchdowns to drop a defense’s point total from 10 to 1. Sacks and turnovers are the money-makers here. In this position, we want to target mismatches between pass rush and offensive line.
Related | Streaming Defenses: Week 2
The premium option this week is the Steelers ($3,800). That’s more than I like to pay for defenses in cash, but Pittsburgh could pay off. Both Pittsburgh and Denver played Monday night, so their prices won’t reflect a great performance by the Pittsburgh defense and poor one by the Denver offense. Pittsburgh held Saquon Barkley to six rushing yards and was overall dominating.
My mid-priced option is the Cardinals ($3,000). Washington just isn’t an offense that will put up a ton of points, and the Cardinals have a pass rush that can get home and cause mistakes.
The Rams ($2,800) don’t represent much discount from the Cardinals, but i don’t see a ton of value below. They get the Philadelphia offensive line that made the Washington DST very successful in Week 1. Lane Johnson is expected back, but he won’t be much help facing Aaron Donald, who will still be tasked with facing backups.
