Week 3 Regression Analysis
Each year we hold out hope for players who have a ton of yards, insane amounts of opportunities, but just can’t quite score TDs. As fantasy analysts we should be highlighting these players to hold out hope for and re-instill the confidence of the public.
On the other hand, we should also be looking out for players who have insanely high TD rates given their production. These players could leave us high and dry come playoff time, as regression finally catches up to them.
I decided to try and create an expected fantasy points model that takes a player’s usage and spits out the amount of fantasy points a player SHOULD have at this point in the season. In this article I’ll be highlighting some notable RBs and WRs who should expect to see some type of regression (good or bad).
Good Things on the Way
Derrick Henry (14.1 points below expected) is easily the RB with the most positive regression coming his way. Through two weeks Henry hasn’t found the success on the ground he did in 2019. It also doesn’t help that he hasn’t scored a TD yet.
The Titans’ run game is definitely better than their current 24th ranking in run DVOA. Henry’s numbers will catch up with expected as the season moves on, and if the receiving work continues to improve, he’ll be a locked in RB1.
Joe Mixon (8.6 points below expected) is another top RB selection that has disappointed fantasy owners in 2020. With the emergence of Joe Burrow as a legit option at QB, it’s weird that the production has followed for Mixon.
Similar to Henry, the volume is there, but the success and TD luck isn’t. As long as the Bengals’ coaching staff recognizes the talent Mixon possesses, he’ll continue to get work in the passing game, and the TD luck will come as the offense gels more throughout the season.
Speaking of Cincinnati, A.J. Green (14.8 points below expected) is living proof that a full offseason with a new, rookie QB is invaluable. Of players with 20 or more targets, Green is the only player to less than 10 catches this season. As time goes on and the chemistry grows, Green will become an extremely valuable option at WR.
Allen Robinson (9.0 points below expected) is another number one receiver that will see some positive regression come his way. Only catching 44% of his targets this year, Robinson hasn’t been able to cash in on the top-15 volume he’s been receiving. Look for Robinson to continue to receive the work and start producing WR1 numbers.
DJ Moore (7.5 points below expected) is on a really bad team. It feels as though Carolina won’t keep anyone under 30 points this season. This will lead to plenty of negative game scripts and massive target volume for Panthers’ receivers. The end zone production will come for Moore, who’s currently seeing top-6 volume.
Negative Ghost Rider
J.K. Dobbins (12.8 points above expected) is the easiest RB to highlight this week. Dobbins has scored on 20% of his touches so far in 2020. This incredible rate cannot be kept up. As we saw in week two, his volume just won’t be consistent as long as Ingram is in that backfield. However, I’d hold
Josh Jacobs (5.5 points above expected) has been the beneficiary of a couple incredible offensive performances by the Raiders. Exposing both the Panthers and Saints’ questionable defense, Jacobs has scored three times in 2020.
However with a run DVOA only one spot higher than the aforementioned Titans, The Raiders can’t keep that up. With a slate coming up that includes New England, Buffalo, Kansas City, and Tampa, I don’t see many positive game scripts coming for Jacobs.
Nick Chubb (9.7 points above expected) had an incredible game on Thursday night. More likely than not, he’ll have another great game against Washington. Noticing a trend? Chubb will be dominant in games the Browns are favored in. How many more games will the Browns be definitively favored in moving forward?
Calvin Ridley (22.0 points above expected) has had the most luck of any RB/WR in fantasy through two weeks. No other WR has more than two TD while Ridley currently has four. While the volume will keep up, the TD luck will not.
