Week 1 Fantasy Football Preview: NFC Edition
As soon as the book is closed on week 1 of the 2020 NFL/fantasy football season, we all will have additional data to work with. Most training camp preconceptions and discussions of players are either reinforced or quickly torn down to be reconstructed (see O.J. Howard week 1). Especially with the lack of off season practice reps, be open to the possibility of having all of your off season preconceptions torn apart.
Related | WHAT TO WATCH FOR DURING Fantasy WEEK 1: AFC EDITION
Consider the first rush to waivers after week 1 as the unofficial final rounds of your drafts. When we know what to look for after week 1, we can be first to the table to make the correct waiver wire pickups. Looking at the box score won’t cut it alone. We must delve into snap percentages and on-field utilization. We can further deepen our understanding by knowing where those snap percentages and on-field utilization were relevant to game script.
Week 1 Fantasy Rankings!
Side note, if you don’t see a position on a specific team being discussed, it is because there aren’t any real fantasy questions heading into Week 1 regarding that position.
NFC WEST
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
RUNNING BACK:
Chris Carson prematurely ended the 2019 season with a hip injury which put his availability for week 1 into question. Reports are that he’s looking solid and ready to go. Rashaad Penny is on reserve/PUP with an A.C.L. tear and will miss at least the first six weeks of the season. The Seahawks brought in veteran journey man Carlos Hyde in Penny’s stead. While Hyde is serviceable, he’s a redundant asset. I expect Hyde to come on the field to give Carson breathers.
Both Carson and Hyde are power backs not known for their pass catching prowess. Behind them, is rookie Deejay Dallas. Reports are that Dallas will be involved in two-minute drills. However, he has only 28 receptions across three years in college and was never trusted much as a three down back.
TIGHT END:
Last year, Dissly was putting up great TE1 numbers before he suffered yet another catastrophic injury. Meanwhile, the Seahawks signed 35-year old free agent Greg Olsen for security. Olsen has quite a lengthy injury history himself and is not a safe bet to make it through the entire season. Olsen should lead the Seattle tight ends in snaps and targets. Look for Dissly to make an appearance from time to time during week 1. If he shows well and confident, just like last season, expect the Seahawks to increase his utilization as the season goes on.
LOS ANGELES RAMS
RUNNING BACK:
This will be one that we will all be watching given that it is a prime time game. The depth chart is muddled in Los Angeles. Rams’ head coach Sean McVay has yet to name an official starting running back. Whether that is to keep opponents off guard or if he truly does not know is yet to be seen.
Second year running back Darrell Henderson has missed most of training camp with a hamstring injury and is still somewhat iffy to play for their Sunday night match up against the Dallas Cowboys. What remains on the depth chart is veteran Malcom Brown and rookie running back Cam Akers. Akers’ ADP is 62. Malcolm Brown is
While some in the fantasy community are counting Brown out for significant touches in this backfield, I wouldn’t goes as far as to say that he’ll be a non-factor in week 1. If Henderson sits and it is up to the just Brown and Akers, it could be more of hot hand approach until somebody pulls away.
During week one of last year with a healthy Todd Gurley and Darrel Henderson ready to go, Brown received 11 carries for 53 yards and two touchdown. So we know that McVay is apt to playing to playing it cautious with his running backs. The smart money would be to pick up Brown in the last rounds of your drafts. If Akers falters in their opening game, Brown could runaway with the job. A starting running back for the Rams in the last rounds of your drafts.
WIDE RECEIVER:
Word on the street is that the Rams want to deploy 12 man personal this season. Sure, we could see an increase but, I think McVay would still prefer to use the 11 man package that he’s such a big fan of. Behind Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods is third year wide receiver Josh Reynolds and rookie Van Jefferson.
Jefferson has been the star of training camp and is already expected to open ahead of Reynolds in week 1. The third wide receiver option in McVay’s offense will always to prove to be fruitful and can easily produce a 1000 yard season.
TIGHT END:
Higbee broke out in a big way to close last season during weeks 13 through 17, going for 522 yards on 43 receptions. Many are expecting him to carry that top five tight end into this season. The dilemma for me was his target share. During those weeks he received 8, 11, 14, 11, and 12 targets. Most WR1’s don’t even receive target shares like that. Before that he failed to receive more than five targets a game while not eclipsing 50 yards once. I don’t see him finishing on that pace but think he was unlocked and is going now to be an integral part of the passing game.
With Higbee firmly atop the depth chart, Gerald Everett, who is a talent at the position himself, is looking to carve out a role. He saw a brief window last season before going down to injury. What’s more is that Everett may be on the trade block as reports have surfaced of teams calling to acquire Everett from the Rams. Understanding what the Rams intend to do during different offensive game script scenarios will give us a clearer picture of what to do with Everett.
ARIZONA CARDINALS
RUNNING BACK:
Kenyan Drake has been in a walking boot all off season. We know he’s the starting running back but this whole walking boot business makes me squeamish. If Drake is in fact just being kept on ice and is a full go for week 1 than we’re all clear. But if not, off season sleeper favorite Chase Edmonds would receive a very significant share of touches. Edmonds’ touches will be something to monitor regardless of Drake’s health status. He showed well last year and is in the coaching staff’s good graces.
WIDE RECEIVER:
Behind stud receiver Deandre Hopkins is Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk, and Andy Isabella. The Cards love to spread it out so expect to see these receivers on the field at once often. Their week 1 match up is against the San Francisco 49ers so do not expect to see much out of the offense. The Niners have a strong defense and love to play clock control.
Kirk has shown us moments of brilliance but it’s been more valleys than it has been peaks. We have a second year offense and quarterback looking to improve and hopefully Kirk will come along for the ride. Give him patience. I am a believer.
Andy Isabella finished the 2019 season with only 13 targets. However, he apparently did enough in training camp to beat out Hakeem Butler who many had as their top wide receiver prospect coming out of college last year. Given the nature of the Cardinals spread offense, Isabelle could see some solid production this year. During the Cardinals’ home game against last year against the Niners, he caught one 88 yards pass for a touchdown. We’ll see if he has their number again.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
RUNNING BACK:
Raheem Mostert is now the lead running back in this offense. Behind him are Tevin Coleman and Jerick McKinnon. Both of the latter running backs were slated to be the starting running backs of this team once upon a time. But McKinnon had really unfortunate injury luck and Coleman flat out had the job taken from him last season. That isn’t to say that Coleman and McKinnon aren’t talented running backs.
Coleman can play well at times but his inconsistencies at the position can be infuriating for fantasy owners and coaching staff alike. He’s expected to open the season as the RB2 for the Niners but we’ve seen weirder things from head coach Kyle Shanahan.
McKinnon is back and fully healthy to start the year. He hasn’t played a single down for the past two years due to ACL complications. But the Niners payed him a hefty contract and are dead set on getting some returns. He has made it past final cuts and is looking to get back to old form. I expect him to push Coleman for that number tow job as early as week 1 if he runs well. He’s going undrafted in a lot of 10 and 12 team leagues. Be sure to keep tabs on him in fantasy if he makes some noise week 1. He could be a nice preemptive waiver wire add.
WIDE RECEIVER:
Deebo Samuel is the Niners’ WR1 but has been recovering from a foot injury he suffered during the off season. As of now, he’s all but recovered from that injury. He was just taken off the NFI list and is looking 50/50 to play week 1. If he does play he would most likely be on a very limited snap count. Regardless of Samuel’s injury, he’s still being drafted in the eighth round of most leagues. He’s a great stash if anything else.
Behind Samuel, the only staple at receiver is Kendrick Bourne and a hodge-podge of other wide receivers. I would just avoid these guys all together. Even if one does emerge beyond Bourne during week 1, I’d approach with caution in fantasy. That value could dissolve like the Thanos snap in Avengers Infinity War.
TIGHT END:
Jordan Reed has found himself on tot he starting roster of the Niners. Reed has suffered a litany of injuries in his past years and one is walking on a this line to stay healthy at this point in his career. Reports out of camp though, have all been positive. He is currently battling Ross Dwelley who performed well in George Kittle’s stead. Reed has the pedigree to pass up Dwelley. Given the lack of receiver depth on the team, Reed could play a more significant pass catching role than Dwelley traditionally has.
NFC NORTH
GREEN BAY PACKERS
RUNNING BACK:
A.J. Dillon was drafted in the second round this year. Standing at 6-0 and 247 pounds, the man is a monster at the running back position. While Aaron Jones is one of the top running backs in the league, I don’t know how you can keep a 6-0 247 running back on the bench during a game. If he comes on for goal line touches during the first week of the game, Jones’ value is going to take a massive hit. This guy scares me both in real life and as an Aaron Jones manager.
WIDE RECEIVER:
Alan Lazard has seemingly won the WR2 position in Green Bay. The passing volume is not one of the more generous int he league but Aaron Rodgers is more inclined to throw the ball and has taken a keen liking to Lazard. Never the less, Lazard should return solid fantasy production in week 1 against a pair of rookie Vikings corner backs.
TIGHT END:
The Jace Sternberger hype train is very quickly coming to a full stop. He’s been a fan favorite but was injured most of the year and the coaching staff has favored tight end Robert Tonyon instead. Tonyon is now slated to open the season as he Packers’ pass catching tight end. If Tonyan holds up his end of the deal then moderate value could be harvested from him. If not, then Sternberger could begin to see reps as the season progresses. The Vikings were solid against tight ends last year so I wouldn’t expect a strong showing from Tonyan.
DETROIT LIONS
RUNNING BACK:
Well, Adrian Peterson is in now in Detroit. So there’s that. Jokes aside, this running back situation is scary. Rookie D’Andre Swift was widely expected to open the season ahead if not dead even with Kerryon Johnson. The signing of Peterson though, casts a doubtful shadow on Swifts week 1 availability. Swift is returned to practice on a limited basis but even with his eventual return to this backfield, head coach Matt Patricia strikes me as the type of person that would want to keep Peterson annoyingly involved. Johnson should open week 1 as the starter but I’m keeping him on the bench in fantasy if I can. Approach with caution.
TIGHT END:
You love him. I love him. We love him. T.J. Hockenson, a.k.a. The Incredible Hock, is back healthy and looking to dominate. Patricia made an effort to get Hockenson on the field last year, but he could not produce. It also did not help that Matthew Stafford was injured for half the season. Lions’ offensive coordinator, Darrell Bevell mentioned that he needs to get his tight ends involved more. Hockenson is a tight end with immense talent and is NFL ready. He is the unquestioned TE1 in Detroit and should open up the season with a solid stat line against the Bears.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
RUNNING BACK:
Dalvin Cook is a stud running back. If you drafted him with your first-round pick, just know that you’re in good hands. Earlier this off season, Cook threatened to a holdout but ultimately was left with no leverage. The Vikings would have payed him but his concerns over his injury history left them reluctant to offer him a contract of his liking.
In addition, second string running back Alexander Mattison, has earned the coaching staffs confidence to play as the lead running back if need be. Not the same style of runner as Cook, Mattison still fits the zone run scheme that offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak loves to run. Be sure to monitor Mattison’s touches during week 1. He could be involved more often right out of the gate.
WIDE RECEIVER:
Rookie Justin Jefferson out of L.S.U. was expected to slot right into the number two wide receiver role left behind by Steffon Diggs. But on the depth chart, Jefferson is listed as the third receiver. His role in the offense during training camp scrimmages however, has contradicted his current depth chart listing. Bisi Johnson is currently listed ahead of him but that may be a formality before naming Jefferson the number two. If Jefferson doesn’t out right take the number two job, hold him for a couple weeks and see what happens.
TIGHT END:
My money is on second year tight end, Irv Smith Jr., to pull away from veteran Kyle Rudolph. His athletic skills set in a Gary Kubiak offense lens optimism to Smith’s second year outlook. During Owen Daniels’ second year with Kubiak in Houston, he put up 768 yards on 63-of-94 receptions. The statistical jump is possible. Let’s look for him to come out and make a statement against the Packers in week 1.
CHICAGO BEARS
QUARTERBACK:
It’s been a couple season now and Mitch Trubisky has been, well, uninspiring to say the least. Nick Foles was signed to possibly replace Trubisky. Foles, a quarterback who once defeated the New England Patriots was unable to beat out Mitch for the starting job. It is just not a good idea to invest in this situation. Unless you are in a superflex league or a super deep single quarterback league, do not concern yourself with who the starting quarterback is here and run the opposite direction.
RUNNING BACK:
David Montgomery is questionable for week 1 due to a groin injury leaving the early down running back position wide open. At 6-2 239 pounds, Ryan Nall is the only running back on the roster that fits that profile. Wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson has been working with the running back position as well during the off season and has been successfully deployed as such before. I don’t think it would be a great idea for the Bears to use Tarik Cohen as an early down runner for the entirety of the game. It’s going to be interesting to see what the Bears do here. Whoever emerges outside of Cohen should be snagged up and stashed because of the recurring nature of groin injuries.
NFC EAST
DALLAS COWBOYS
RUNNING BACK:
I’m curious to see if Tony Pollards role is expanded in any way for his second season. He is a more dynamic back than Ezekiel Elliot but the presence of Ceedee Lamb and anticipated breakout of of Blake Jarwin might make that difficult.The only way I see Pollard’s usage increasing is a Zeke injury or an increased role on passing downs/two minute drills.
WIDE RECEIVER:
This offense is going to be so much fun. Especially for their week 1 game against the Rams, we should see a lot of action from all the Cowboys’ receivers. Amari Cooper headlines this squad with Michael Gallup and Ceedee Lamb behind him. All of these guys have the chance to put up 1,000 yard seasons this year. What will be fun to watch is where these receivers line up. They can literally line up at all wide receiver positions and will be nightmare match ups for the Rams defense this Sunday.
TIGHT END:
Blake Jarwin has been a fan favorite this off season. Jarwin did not put up a notable stat line last year but showed well with his opportunities. The Cowboys have the third highest implied total at 27.5 points in the second highest projected scoring game of week 1 which of course means fantasy production should be high. If Jarwin doesn’t put up a respectable stat line this week, I wouldn’t panic just yet, but it would raise an eyebrow at the least.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
RUNNING BACK:
Miles Sanders is currently dealing with a hamstring injury and has been considered week to week. We haven’t heard much out of the Eagles yet, but the expectation is that he will suit up. Sanders is the unquestioned starter in this backfield with no one to challenge him for early down work.
Boston Scott is the next man up and is slated as the alternate/change of pace back. His usage towards the end of last season mirrored that of Darren Sproles while he was in Philly and I am expecting to see that workload in week 1. Sproles receptions came very close to the line of scrimmage last year as did Scott’s. However, there was a play at the end of last season where Scott lined up in the slot and was targeted 20 yards down the field on a seam route. Hopefully we see more of that leak into this season. Expect Scott to handle close to 10 carries and a handful of receptions for a modest week 1 stat line.
Behind Scott is Corey Clement and scat back Jason Huntley. Clement doesn’t carry any upside and could come as relief for either Sanders or Scott. Huntley is interesting. He has a light frame at 5-9 and 193 pounds, but he is a burner. During his last year at New Mexico, he had 164 rushing attempts for 1090 yards and 40 receptions for 192 yards. I completely expect him to push Scott for more touches and be used more out of the backfield as the season progresses.
WIDE RECEIVER:
As usual, the Eagles are a mess at wide receiver. Both Alshon Jeffery and Jalen Raegor will miss the first week of the season with injuries leaving Philly favorite DeSean Jackson to lead the charge. The Eagles get the Washington Football Team week 1 and Jackson completely smoked them for 154 yards and two touchdowns week 1 last year.
There should be some work for at least one more receiver in what is expected to be low scoring game. Greg Ward, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, and John Hightower will absorb whatever residual targets come their way behind Jackson, Zack Ertz, and Dallas Goedert. I wouldn’t roster any of these wide receivers unless your’e in a deeper league.
WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM
QUARTERBACK:
Dwayne Haskins displayed some of the most inaccurate quarterback play I have seen in a long time. Hopefully his mechanics had a complete overhaul and he spent a lot of time practicing with his receivers outside of training camp. That said, Haskins seemed to make the right reads but just couldn’t get the ball there as he was constantly overshooting his receivers. Foe those of you that have him rostered, keep him out of your lineups until you see some improvements with his mechanics.
RUNNING BACK:
Antonio Gibson season. Let’s go! This is the most athletic guy in the backfield. He stands at 6-0 228 pounds but can run a 4.39 forty time. He has experience at both running back and wide receiver and can take it to the house any given moment. I do not think he is a complete back in terms of vision and manipulating linebackers, but if he gets loose it is game over. Given that the Eagles are-six point favorites, look for Gibson to make a formidable week 1 one introduction to the NFL.
Also, in the backfield is everybody’s favorite blue collar rusher Peyton Barber and Bryce Love who is coming off a lost rookie year due to injury. These two backs are probably facing a hot hand situation until one decisively pulls away which may not happen at all. While some people are discounting this backfield because of the perception that this offense will be one of the league’s lowest scoring, I feel that it will produce at a level better than expected.
WIDE RECEIVER:
I have to be honest, outside of Terry McLaurin, I am not terribly interested in this wide receiver group. Steven Sims Jr. is a solid wide receiver and one I would be excited about given their quarterback situation was better. Whichever receiver emerges won’t provide much value even with Washington trailing on the scoreboard.
TIGHT END:
Logan Thomas might the late round tight end de jour. He athletic in all aspects of the game but just has to get better at the fundamental demands of the position. Thomas could provide nice week to week floor value with a good chance of getting an above average amount of red zone targets this year.
NEW YORK GIANTS
QUARTERBACK:
Daniel Jones is going to have a rough week 1 in fantasy and reality. He goes against the Steelers pass rush in a prime time spot and is prone to setting himself up to take unnecessary sacks. He is going to be under constant pressure and scrambling like a mad man. Jones should put up a lot of rushing yards as a result but I would not bet on him to have a great night passing minus some garbage time production.
RUNNING BACK:
This is for the deeper leagues. We all know Saquon Barkley is a top two fantasy running back. What I want to see here is who gets run behind him. Dion Lewis was signed to the Giants 11 days after he was released by the Titans. Reports are that Wayne Gallman is on the roster bubble. Still only 29 years old, if Lewis is able to make it on the field for two-minute drill situations and can get an occasional drive to himself then he would retain deep league fantasy value.
TIGHT END:
Again, this is for the deep league and the daily players. Backup tight end Kaden Smith came on while Evan Engram was injured last year and showed well. There most likely won’t be a rotation on the field with Engram, but if Golden Tate sits, I would expect Smith to see a bump in snaps while Engram splits out wide in the slot. Obviously, he would return solid fantasy value should Engram go down again.
NFC SOUTH
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
RUNNING BACK:
With rumors of Alvin Kamara threatening a hold out two weeks before the season started, Latavius Murray was on the verge of becoming a league winner for those who drafted him late early in the off season. That storms seems to be passing as reports coming out of New Orleans that the Saints and Kamara are close to signing a long term contract. If Kamara does in fact play, I still believe that Murray is going to get plenty of opportunities to return value. Kamara is not built for a traditional early down bruiser back role.
Meanwhile Ty Montgomery has resurfaced in New Orleans and is planning on putting his hybrid running back/wide receiver skills to use. It’s possible the Saints find a role for him in some kind of joker/mismatch slot receiver role.
WIDE RECEIVER:
Outside of Tampa Bay Buccaneers corner back Carlton Davis, there is no ther pass coverage threat on the team. Emmanuel Sanders is one of the most savvy players in the game. Even at 33 years old, he possess the tools to become a both a valuable fantasy and real life asset and I think Drew Brees is going to absolutely love having him on the team. I expect Sanders to take the Bucs Secondary to task this Sunday. Feel free to start him as a floor WR2 or high end WR3.
Tre’Quan Smith is entering his third year. He did virtually nothing on the field last year and a potential breakout is highly unlikely to happen with Sanders now in front of him.
TIGHT END:
Rookie Adam Trautman is not expected to do much for this week one match up is an excellent stash in dynasty leagues. He profiles as somebody who may be able to contribute in the second half of the season. Just keep tabs on him.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
RUNNING BACK:
Bruce Arians has mentioned that Leonard Fournette is going to have a “solid” role week one against the New Orleans Saints and I happen to believe him. Partly because I believe Tom Brady will have a lot of say of who stays on the field. Both Ronald Jones and Fournette are talented backs with their own set of unique skill sets. Obviously this is a situation to watch. Jones’ ADP had fallen drastically after Fournette got signed. A lot of people that drafted Jones may have gotten a great value. He needs a strong week 1 showing to keep a significant portion of touches going forward.
WIDE RECEIVER:
Mike Evans is questionable to enter week 1 with a hamstring injury. That would push Chris Godwin to the top of the depth chart and leave open a significant amount of Scotty Miller. Miller had a decent run a couple years back but missed last season due to injury. He would be an intriguing pick up for owners in a pinch or for daily line ups.
TIGHT END:
Rob Gronkowski is back after a brief hiatus and outside of the Buccaneers, nobody knows what to do with him. Common assumption is that he’ll be used heavily as an end zone target and sparingly between the 20’s. He’s still a mismatch for most safeties and defensive backs.
O.J. Howard experiment round two. I took him early in last years draft based believing that his talent could not be ignored by Arians. Howard didn’t stand a chance against Arians. I’m hoping for a bounce back this year but I can’t find a reason as to why it would happen. He’s going undrafted in some leagues and may be the most important waiver wire pickup by next week.
CAROLINA PANTHERS:
QUARTERBACK:
Teddy Bridgewater is stereotyped as, well, a conservative passer and his history backs that up. However, per PFF, graded him well throwing 20 yards and beyond downfield. His passing direction grades for 2014 and 2015 were as follows;
2014:
- Outside left: 84.5
- Between the numbers: 38.4
- Outside right: 79.5
2015:
- Outside left: 77.5
- Between the numbers: 74.0
- Outside right: 39.3
He suffered a gruesome off season injury in 2016 before being signed to the Saints in 2018. While he may not be close to breaking any records, he is more than serviceable in a game against Raiders where both teams have porous secondaries. He makes for a great streaming option or late round quarterback option.
WIDE RECEIVER:
We know D.J. Moore is a stud. I want to know how Bridgewater favors deep threat Robby Anderson and Curtis Samuel. These three receivers, if utilized correctly, could absolutely shred defenses. They may be one of the best wide receiver groups in the league that no one is talking about.
TIGHT END:
Ian Thomas has all kinds of athletic potential. This is finally the year he has a competent quarterback and no other tight end in front of him. I like him and think he’s worth rostering. My only concern is his market share of targets. Thomas’ average depth of target should be in right in Bridgewaters sweet spot. I have faith.
ATLANTA FALCONS:
RUNNING BACK:
Todd Gurley is the main back in town. His health will determine his carry account and effectiveness. If he can play well the he can prevent this backfield form becoming a committee. In that same breath, the running backs behind Gurley are not stand out players. Brian Hill fell flat on his face last year in a cake match up against the Carolina Panthers and Ito Smith is a replacement level back who only serves as relief to the primary running back
TIGHT END:
Hayden Hurst was really hyped up this off season. He is taking the place of Austin Hopper who played as a legit top five tight end during his time in Atlanta. Hurst only had 30 receptions for 349 yards and two touchdowns so we are going on a relatively small sample size. The enthusiasm for Hurst comes from his natural athleticism and play making abilities. Should he live up to the hype, he’ll serve as the uncontested third wide receiver on the Falcons.
