2024 Running Back Value: RB1 Without the Premium
2024 Running Back Value: RB1 Without the Premium
After a few rough years at the running back position, the average draft position (ADP) is lower than usual. Fantasy football managers tend to turn to reliable, “safer” options at wide receiver in earlier rounds. This is especially true when receptions are factored in to league scoring.
As the ADP declines across the position, fantasy football managers are able to find value in the later rounds. But what should we look for when we try to find the a hidden gem at running backs? Here are the trends I look for when finding value at the running back position, and players who I think can outperform their ADP with RB1 hopes.
More: Zero RB Targets for 2024 Fantasy Football
Trends of A RB1
Over the last eight years we have a sample size of 96 running backs. Over that span, two indicators we’ll look at are total touchdowns and receptions.
71 of the 96 RB1s have scored double-digit touchdowns (74%). Of last year’s top-12 running backs, only James Cook (RB9) failed to hit double-digit touchdowns with six. 52 of the 96 had at least 50 receptions (54.2%), but 86 running backs had either 10 total touchdowns or 50 receptions (89.6%). While the percentage with over 50 receptions seems low, of the 44 who failed to hit 50 receptions, there are only 11 top-5 finishes:
Aaron Jones in 2019: 2nd; 19 TDs and 49 receptions
James Robinson in 2020: 4th; 10 TDs and 49 receptions
Aaron Jones 2020: 5th; 11 TDs and 47 receptions
Dalvin Cook in 2020: 2nd; 17 TDs and 44 receptions
Joe Mixon in 2021: 3rd; 16 TDs and 42 receptions
Jonathan Taylor in 2021: 1st; 20 TDs and 40 receptions
Derrick Henry in 2022: 4th; 13 TDs and 33 receptions
Ezekiel Elliot in 2016: 2nd; 16 TDs and 32 receptions
Kyren Williams in 2023: 4th; 15 TDs and 32 receptions
Raheem Mostert in 2023: 2nd; 21 TDs and 25 receptions
Derrick Henry in 2020: 3rd; 21 TDs and 19 receptions
10 of 11 instances have come since 2019, while six of the backs hauled in at least 40 receptions. Three (Mostert, Taylor, and Jones) led the league in total touchdowns. The average touchdowns for those players is 16.3, with the range being from 10 to 21.
Here is a breakdown of touches, receptions, and total touchdowns based on a running back’s finish.
Another metric to look at is the age of the running backs:
36 of the 40 (90%) top-5 running backs in the last eight years were 27 years or younger. 84 of the 96 (87.5%) of the RB1s were 27 or younger. Three players – Mostert, Derrick Henry, and Alvin Kamara – were at least 28 while finishing as a RB1. Henry led the league with rush attempts (280), Mostert led the league in rushing touchdowns (18) and Kamara finished second in RB receptions (75), despite missing time. Mostert is the 4th player over 30 who finished as a RB1 in this eight year window: LeGarrette Blount (2016), Mark Ingram II (2019) and Cordarrelle Patterson (2021). Those three each finished as RB8 as 30-year old’s.
So, the player pool we’re looking at falls with those running backs involved in the pass game while on their first contract.
Pre-Draft RB1s
As we turn the calendar to August, ADP will adjust over the next month. Here is the current ADP, courtesy of FantasyPros, of the top-12 RBs in half-PPR scoring as of August 14th:
RB1: Christian McCaffrey (1st overall, 28 years old)
RB2: Bijan Robinson (4th overall, 22 years old)
RB3: Breece Hall (5th overall, 23 years old)
RB4: Jonathan Taylor (10th overall, 25 years old)
RB5: Saquon Barkley (11th overall, 27 years old)
RB6: Jahmyr Gibbs (12th overall, 22 years old)
RB7: Kyren Williams (15th overall, 24 years old)
RB8: Travis Etienne (18th overall, 25 years old)
RB9: Derrick Henry (19th overall, 30 years old)
RB10: De’Von Achane (22nd overall, 23 years old)
RB11: Isiah Pacheco (24th overall, 25 years old)
RB12: Josh Jacobs (25th overall, 26 years old)
Excluding these 12 backs, let’s see where we can find 2024 running back value in later rounds.
James Cook (RB14, 40th overall, 25 years old)
Why Cook Won’t be a RB1: Touchdowns
As mentioned above, Cook was the lone RB1 in 2023 who failed to score double digit touchdowns. His six touchdowns is tied for the second fewest among RB1s going back to 2016. In 33 games played and 391 total touches, Cook has just nine touchdowns in his career.
Since Josh Allen was drafted in 2018, the Bills’ running back have struggled to punch the ball in the end zone when they get close. Bills’ backs have scored the fewest rushing touchdowns from inside the five-yard line over the last six years. Allen has 31 rushing touchdowns from inside the five-yard line in his career (54 total).
While this is a concern for Cook, there is plenty to be excited about for the third-year back.
Why Cook Will be a RB1: Competition, Receiving Upside, OC Joe Brady
Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Austin Ekeler, Joe Mixon, and Aaron Jones are just a handful of big name running backs who changed teams this offseason. None of which joined the Bills this offseason. The only additions to the Bills backfield has come from 4th round rookie Ray Davis and undrafted free agent Frank Gore Jr. I touched on Day 3 running backs in 2024 Managing Rookie Expectations: Running Backs and how they struggle to have a true impact in year one. Only 20 of 75 (26.7%) running backs who played as a rookie coming off a Day 3 selection finished in the top-60 for fantasy football. This is the James Cook backfield, barring any late offseason signing.
Cook’s 54 targets from a season ago ranked 4th on the Bills. There are 308 available targets (53.2%) with the absence of Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis, including 15 of Josh Allen’s 29 (51.7%) passing touchdowns. While there were additions of second-round rookie Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel, who has played with new offensive coordinator Joe Brady, there should still be some work to go Cook’s way to help him eclipse the 50 reception mark.
Joe Brady relieved Ken Dorsey of offensive coordinator duties after Week 10’s loss to the Broncos. Here are Cook’s averages with Dorsey vs. Brady
Dorsey (10 games): 12 atts, 61.5 yds, one rushing TD; 2.4 recs, 2.8 targets, 22.2 rec yds, one rec TD (10.6 .5 PPR PPG; RB30)
Brady (6 games): 17.3 atts, 78.5 yds, one rushing TD; 2.8 recs, 3.7 targets, 34.5 rec yds, three rec TDs (16.2 .5 PPR PPG; RB5)
Four touchdowns across six games was able to secure Cook a top-5 RB status from Weeks 11 thru 17.
I currently have Cook as a RB1 (RB10) heading into 2024, and believe he is worthy of an early third-round selection in .5-PPR redraft leagues.
Kenneth Walker III (RB16, 44th overall, 24 years old)
Why Walker Won’t be a RB1: Zach Charbonnet
The Seahawks invested 2nd round draft capital in Zach Charbonnet in last year’s draft class. Walker was also a 2nd round draft pick in 2022. While there was added competition, Walker actually saw his team carry percentage rise with the addition of Charbonnet. In games Walker played, his team carry percentage rose from 58.3% to 64.6% in his sophomore season. Charbonnet did add 40 targets last season, which could limit Walker’s ceiling. But a change of signal callers in Seattle might change that narrative this year.
Why Walker Will be a RB1: Consistency, New Coaching Staff
In his first two seasons, Walker averaged 17 and 16.5 touches per game, respectively. While this primarily comes on the ground (15.2 as a rookie, 14.6 in 2023), it still provides a safe floor for a player who is currently going as a RB2. He’s also been able to score nine times each season, doing so in 13 of 30 total games.
Since Walker took over starting duties in Week 6 of his rookie season, he’s averaged 18.2 touches per game (14 .5-PPR PPG). That includes two games where Walker left with injury and totaled less than 25% of the team’s offensive snaps. In his 24 games as a starter (excluding Week 18), Walker’s points per game average puts him as RB9 in his two seasons.
After 14 seasons as head coach, Pete Carroll was let go after last season. This led to the hire of Mike Macdonald, the former Baltimore Ravens defensive coordinator, to replace Carroll. Ryan Grubb, the former University of Washington offensive coordinator, was hired for the same role in Seattle. He commented last week on Walker’s progress this preseason:
If we could get Walker on the field for all three downs, this will only raise his ceiling for fantasy football, especially in scoring formats that value receptions. Like Cook, I currently have Walker as a RB1 (RB11). I believe he is worthy of a third round pick in .5-PPR formats and can be a low-end RB1 option if you take an elite receiver with your first pick.
More: Top-5 Handcuff Running Backs in 2024 Fantasy Football
Najee Harris (RB24, 69th overall, 26 years old)
Why Harris Won’t be a RB1: Jaylen Warren
Najee Harris caught 74 of 94 targets as a rookie in 2021, the highest reception mark among running backs that year. His 381 total touches led the league. In the two years (34 games) since, he has caught 70 of his 91 targets. Jaylen Warren joined the Steelers in 2022, and finished second on the team in receptions (61) and third in targets (74) last year. If the roles are similar, which is expected with new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, Warren’s pass catching upside will cut in to Harris’s upside.
With that in mind, Warren’s expected involvement is baking into Harris’s current ADP. There are reasons to be excited about Harris.
Why Harris Will be a RB1: Volume, Touchdowns
Harris’s volume has been great in his first three years from a fantasy football perspective. His 284 total touches last year was his lowest in a season (16.7/gm). Enter Arthur Smith as offensive coordinator; the former Falcons head coach had Atlanta in the top-3 in rush attempts the last two years. His availability and expected volume provide a safe floor.
Harris has scored at least eight touchdowns in his three seasons, including two where he reached double-digits. When Atlanta was inside the 5-yard line the last three years, they ran the ball on 53 of 96 plays (55.2%; 40/83 rushing plays by the running backs (48.2%)); 79 of the 194 plays inside the 10-yard line were rush plays from the running backs (40.7%). 13 of Harris’s 22 rushing scores came inside the 5-yard line in his career (20 coming from inside the 10-yard line). If Harris continues to get this work, he should still provide a sound touchdown floor with Arthur Smith.
Harris is currently going towards the end of the 6th round in redraft leagues as the final RB2. I still have him as a RB2, but as my current RB17, and believe he offers value as a potential 2024 RB1.
More: 10 Players You Need to Draft After Round 10
Dark Horse: Javonte Williams (RB32, 91st overall, 24 years old)
Why Williams Won’t be a RB1: Touchdowns, RBBC
Similar to others on this list, Javonte Williams has struggled to find the endzone throughout his career. On 573 total touches in his shortened three year career, he has scored 12 times (seven on 467 rush attempts; five on 106 receptions). Williams will have to come close to this number if there is any hope of being a RB1.
The Broncos have a crowded running back room. Outside of Williams, Denver is currently rostering Samaje Perine, Jaleel McLaughlin, and rookie Audric Estime. Earlier this offseason, it was expected that one of Williams or Perine would be cut. However, per Nathan Jahnke of Pro Football Focus on X, both Williams (nine snaps) and Perine (three snaps) were on the field with the first team in Denver’s first preseason game against Indianapolis. Perine was noted to be in on passing down work, with Williams being on the field the rest of the time. While this is only the first preseason game, this is a good sign for Williams in the middle of August.
Why Williams Will be a RB1: Full Year Removed from ACL Injury, Receiving Upside
Now, there is a story behind Williams’ career. He finished as the RB17 in his rookie season (RB25 in PPG), but was the RB11 on a PPG basis after Denver’s Week 11 bye that season. Williams tore his ACL a month into his second season. He managed to play in all but one game last year. Now he’s a full year removed from tearing his ACL.
Coming off the ACL injury, Williams was still a viable passing option. In his two full seasons, Williams is on pace for 46 receptions for a season, just below that 50 reception mark we look for. The Broncos traded Jerry Jeudy this offseason, with the lone additions coming from wideouts Josh Reynolds and round four rookie Troy Franklin. Williams could have his best season from a receiving standpoint in 2024.
The Denver running back room is a fluid situation this offseason. But after the first preseason game, I have Williams as a viable RB2 option currently. If Williams can manage to hit the 50 reception mark and see a slight uptick in total touchdowns, he will surely outperform his current ADP and potentially reach RB1 status in 2024.
Dark Horse: Tyjae Spears (RB35, 101st overall, 23 years old)
Why Spears Won’t be a RB1: RBBC, Passing Volume
While the departure of Derrick Henry helped Tyjae Spears’ fantasy football value, Tennessee was busy this offseason with offensive additions. The Titans signed Tony Pollard to a 3-year, $10.5 million guaranteed contract this offseason. This should lead to a running back by committee (RBBC) approach to start the season.
While adding Pollard, the Titans also added pass catchers to help Will Levis in his second season. Jaguars and Bengals free agent receivers Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd both signed with Tennessee this offseason. Boyd has a history with new head coach Brian Callahan, both coming over from Cincinnati. Those two paired with DeAndre Hopkins (when healthy) will arguably be one of the top three wide receiver sets in the league.
Why Spears Will be a RB1: Receiving Work
In Levis’s eight starts where he finished the game, Spears garnered a 14.1% target share. Spears ranked 9th in targets and receptions, and 11th in yards per route run. While running mate Tony Pollard has seen his involvement in the Dallas passing game increase each year in his career, Spears proved to be more efficient in his lone season.
I would venture to see this continue, especially since Spears has a chemistry with Levis already. For reference, while Callahan was the offensive coordinator with Zac Taylor, Bengals running backs averaged 6.1 targets per game since 2019. That could put Spears in line for hitting the 50 reception mark we look for in a RB1.
I currently don’t have Spears as a RB1. However, I do have a higher rank for him (RB28; 81st overall) and believe Spears could be a dark horse to finish as a RB1 if his situation breaks right.
Agree? Disagree? Let’s discuss on Twitter! Follow me @DrewRoberts_and let me know who your favorite is or someone I missed.
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