2024 Managing Rookie Expectations: Wide Receivers
Managing Expectations For 2024 Rookie Wide Receivers
Year after year, the NFL welcomes a new pool of talented rookies. In those rookie classes, one of the deepest positions in each draft tends to be the wide receivers. But how did they fair in their rookie seasons? How should we be managing expectations for rookie receivers in this year’s class? Let’s look at how rookies have performed in their first NFL season, along with traits from their college careers.
FREE: 2024 Rookie Draft Guide
Rookie Finishes
Over the last seven years, 223 receivers have been selected in the NFL Draft. Based on total points in half-PPR format, here is how rookies finished in their first season:
As it takes most rookies time to get acclimated in their first professional season, it should be no surprise to the slow starts. 2023 was the most productive year by rookies since 2017 Three wideouts finishing as a WR1 or WR2. Three WR3s is also tied for the most since 2017. The most surprising stat of the 2023 rookie receiver class is the top finish from a Day 1 or Day 2 selection was Rashee Rice, finishing as the WR22. Puka Nacua truly made this class special in year one, finishing as the WR6 despite fifth round draft capital and not declaring early.
But we can dive deeper into what makes rookies stand out early in their careers. One trait many look at when evaluating receivers is their class ranking upon entering the league.
Declaring Early
Receivers declaring early often leads to fantasy success. Of the 35 receivers who finished better than WR5, 22 declared early (62.9%):
Another intriguing stat from the 2023 rookie class is the majority of receivers to finish better as a WR4 or better did not declare early. Zay Flowers, Jayden Reed, Rashee Rice, Tank Dell, and Puka Nacua all stayed for at least four years. Only three of ten rookie receivers that declared early were reliable fantasy football options in 2023. Six of the ten were drafted from round one thru three.
Chase Claypool, Chris Olave, Brandon Aiyuk, Terry McLaurin, Darius Slayton, Deebo Samuel, Cooper Kupp, and Christian Watson also stayed for their entire collegiate career. Only Claypool finished as a WR2; six finished as WR3s and Christian Watson finished as a WR4. Of this year’s receivers selected in the first three rounds, Zay Flowers, Jonathan Mingo, Jayden Reed, Rashee Rice, Cedric Tillman, Michael Wilson, and Tre Tucker chose to play their senior season and not declare early.
Round selection also plays a factor. Puka Nacua, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Darius Slayton are the only Day 3 rookies to finish as a WR3 or better over the last five years. Additionally, just two Day 3 receivers in this seven year window have finished as top-60 in total points for half-PPR leagues: Darnell Mooney and Gabriel Davis. But what about those who are selected on Day 1 of the NFL Draft?
1st Round Selections
If you are planning on selecting a rookie wide receiver, 1st round selections have delivered the most consistently.
22 of the 25 receivers who finished as a WR3 or better were selected in the first three rounds. 11 of those receivers were 1st round selections, with seven declaring early. Four of seven 1st round wide receiver selections this year were early declares: Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr., and Xavier Worthy declared early. Rome Odunze, Ricky Pearsall, and Xavier Legette stayed for at least four years.
The 2024 draft class had three top-10 selections come from the wide receiver position. How do they typically fare their rookie year?
Top-5 & 10 Selections
For the first time since 2021, there was at least one top-5 and three top-10 draft picks used on wide receivers. Marvin Harrison Jr. is the 7th receiver to be selected in the top-5 since 2010. Here is how the other six did in their first year:
Top-5 drafted wide receivers have averaged 11.3 .5-PPR PPG as rookies since 2010. This PPG average would range from WR16 to WR30 from 2017 to 2023. Ja’Marr Chase is the only WR1 rookie season, finishing as the WR4 in both total and PPG. Corey Davis was the only non-Power Five representative and also did not declare for the NFL Draft early. He is the only receiver who was not flex-worthy, averaging 5.3 PPG over 10 games.
There is a big jump from these six receivers from year one to year two. The PPG average jumps from 11.3 to 13.4, with Chase being the lone receiver not seeing a bump in fantasy production. Only Amari Cooper and Davis did not average 14 PPG in .5 PPR leagues in their second year.
Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze were taken in the top-10. Here is how the top-10 picks finished in their rookie year:
Top-10 picks averaged 9.6 PPG as rookies. If you exclude Mike Williams and John Ross’s shortened seasons, where they averaged just above 1 PPG, the average jumps to 10.6 PPG. The spike from year one to two is not as steep as top-5 rookies; that average jumps from 9.6 to 10.2 PPG.
Conclusion
Unlofty expectations for rookie wide receivers to finish as a WR1 will likely leave you disappointed. The debut seasons we saw from Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase are few and far between. Puka Nacua was even more unlikely with his 5th round draft capital. With that said, we should expect a couple of receivers to contribute to your fantasy football roster this year. Just not quite a WR1 contribution. Do not hesitate in grabbing your favorite rookie receiver in this year’s draft, especially with 16 receivers taken on the first two days of the 2024 NFL Draft.
RANKINGS | REDRAFT | DYNASTY |
Fantasy Football Season Is NOW At Underdog. Sign up and draft now! Use Promo-Code: YARDSPER to claim your Special Pick + First Time Deposit offer up to $250 in bonus cash!
