2024 Managing Rookie Expectations: Running Backs
Managing Expectations For 2024 Rookie Running Backs
Year after year, the NFL welcomes a new pool of talented rookies. But how do running backs fair in their rookie seasons? How should we be managing expectations for the 2024 rookie running backs? Let’s look at how rookies have performed in their first NFL season – and how they back it up in their sophomore season.
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Rookie Finishes
To keep the ‘Managing Rookie Expectations‘ series consistent, we go back to 2017. In that span, 153 running backs were selected in the NFL Draft. Based on total points in half-point per reception scoring formats, here is how rookies finished in their first season:
2023 featured some promising rookie running backs. With two running backs selected in the top-12 of the NFL Draft, both Jahmyr Gibbs (RB9) and Bijan Robinson (RB12) found themselves as an RB1 for the 2023 season. Yet, neither finished as the top PPG; that belongs to De’Von Achane, who averaged 16.5 PPG in half-PPR scoring formats.
As strong as the 2023 class appears, no class in recent memory has stacked up to the class of 2017. The 2017 rookie running back class proved to be an outlier in multiple areas. First, they are the only class in the last six years to produce more than one RB1, producing the RB3, RB4, RB8, and RB11. It is also the only class to see prominent success from round three running backs; Alvin Kamara (RB3) and Kareem Hunt (RB4) finished in the top-5. Saquon Barkley (2018 RB3) and Najee Harris (2021 RB4) are the only other rookie running backs in the last six years to finish in the top-5 at the position.
While this is helpful, let’s look at a round-by-round breakdown of how rookies fair depending on their draft capital.
1st Round Selections
Of the 153 running backs selected over the last seven years, here is the breakdown of which round they were selected:
If a running back is selected in the first round, recent history has shown they will produce immediately for fantasy. Six of the 11 round one rookie running backs finished as an RB1.
Rashaad Penny is the lone 1st round running back selected coming from a non-Power Five school. The other nine running backs (Etienne missed his entire rookie season) who attended a Power Five school averaged 14.4 PPG in half-PPR scoring formats as rookies. Depending on the year, that 14.4 PPG mark would rank as the RB9 thru RB13. However, no running back was selected in the first round in the 2024 NFL Draft; Jonathan Brooks was the first running back selected 46th overall in the second round.
This result improves if they were drafted in the top-10. Bijan Robinson averaged 12.2 PPG in half-PPR formats, including a game where he was ill and received just one touch. Barkley, Leonard Fournette, and Christian McCaffrey each garnered top-10 draft capital and averaged 16.5 PPG as rookies. Each of the four finished as a RB1, ranging as high as Barkley’s RB3 finish to Bijan’s RB12 finish a year ago. Barkley’s RB3 finish is more impressive than his finish indicates, considering it is the 8th best mark for running backs in the last six years for a 16-week fantasy football season.
Given the small sample size of round one rookie running backs, how do other rounds fair as rookies? Let’s look at running backs selected on Day 2 of the NFL Draft.
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Day 2 Selections – Round 2
Just under one quarter of the running backs selected in the last seven drafts have come on night two. Here are those who were selected in the second round.
While only one running back – Jonathan Taylor – has produced a RB1 season from round two, there is still plenty of upside in this round. Six of 17 second round selections have finished as a RB1 or RB2 for the season. For those who played, round two selections have averaged 10.1 PPG in half-PPR formats since 2017. Their end of season finishes can be misleading; Dalvin Cook and Breece Hall both averaged at least 15 PPG, but played less than half of the season. Both finished top-10 in their rookie season in PPG.
We tend to see 2nd round selections produce even more in their second year, with their PPG average jumping from 10.1 PPG to 12.9 PPG. While Taylor was the only rookie to finish as a RB1 as a rookie, there have been five RB1 finishes by a second round running back in year two. Both Rachaad White (RB6) and James Cook (RB10) were drafted in Round 2 and hit RB1 status in their second year.
Day 2 Selections – Round 3
While round three is on the Friday of the NFL Draft, we have seen a significant dip in production when comparing to round two selections.
Round three running backs have averaged just 6.6 PPG in half-PPR scoring formats since 2017. That includes outliers Kareem Hunt and Alvin Kamara; without their breakout rookie seasons, third round rookie running backs average just 5.5 PPG. Two running backs – Devin Singletary and De’Von Achane – averaged over 10 PPG, compared to nine of 16 (56.3%) of the round two selections. David Montgomery and Achane are the lone RB2s as rookies drafted in the 3rd round.
If there was a significant drop off from the second to third round, what about the drop off from a day two selection to a day three selection?
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Day 3 Selections
Going back to the graph under 1st round selections, it’s clear day three selections do not start as quickly as early round picks. This shouldn’t be a surprise; yet, what is surprising is the best finish by a day three NFL prospect came last year with Dameon Pierce.
There have been 104 running backs selected on Day 3 of the NFL Draft from 2017 to 2023. 75 (72%) of those backs played at some point during their rookie season. Only 20 of the 75 who played (26.7%) finished as a top-60 back. And this is not due to missed time; Chris Carson is the only rookie not on the list who averaged over five PPG. Carson played in just four games as a rookie.
Each of the top three in Pierce, Elijah Mitchell, and Michael Carter landed in ideal spots where they could get touches relatively quickly. Roschon Johnson was in this position last year; he finished as RB47 at 5.5 PPG. Barring injuries, no Day 3 running back offers that upside in this class.
Conclusion
The 2024 rookie running backs class lacks the upside of previous draft classes. The last top running back to be taken outside a top-40 pick was Bishop Sankey in 2014. However, we have seen
De’Von Achane should be on fantasy football managers radars entering 2024. His rookie campaign was stellar: his 16.5 PPG ranked 4th among rookie backs since 2017. The other three ahead of him – Barkley, Hunt, and Kamara – finished as a top-5 rookie back. They followed that up with another RB1 season in year two. Miami loves speed, and while Raheem Mostert has history with Mike McDaniel going back to San Francisco, he just turned 32 this offseason.
Be mindful of the round three and day three selections. Hunt and Kamara’s monster rookie seasons can create lofty expectations for Trey Benson, Blake Corum, and MarShawn Lloyd. These should be thought of as RB3/4s, with a RB2/high end FLEX being a hit. Lastly, keep an eye on training camp for injuries or hold outs for the day three selections. If there is a quick path to playing time, you could find a FLEX worthy back in the later rounds. Otherwise, be mindful it could be a slow start for the later 2024 rookie running backs.
Managing Rookie Expectations:
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