2024 College Football Week 9 Best Bets
2024 College Football Week 9 Best Bets
Conference play heats up as we enter the last weekend of October. Only one month left of the season to prove who belongs in the College Football Playoff, and only time will tell who will play themselves out. Plenty of matchups this weekend will have a domino effect on who makes the first ever 12-team playoff. Here are my favorite Week 9 college football bets.
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Week 8: 2-3 (-1.28 Units)
Year to Date: 15-23-1 (-10.14 Units)
Washington (4-3) vs. #13 Indiana (7-0)
Indiana -6.5; O/U 53
Indiana -6.5 (-110)
I’ve tried to avoid including my Hoosiers in these articles, but can’t ignore the wagon any longer. Two things why I think this line is this low: Vegas is assuming a potential/eventual letdown spot for the Hoosiers, and the loss of starting quarterback Kurtis Rourke. His replacement, Tayven Jackson, went 7/8 for 91 yards and two touchdowns en route to a 28-0 second half over Nebraska and now has a full week to prepare as the starter.
But the focus for Indiana should be on the ground: Justice Ellison (7 YPC) and Ty’Son Lawton (5.2 YPC) split the majority of the carries for the Hoosiers, recording eight touchdowns a piece. Indiana ranks 4th in conference in rush attempts per game (38.1 att/gm), and YPC (5.31 YPC), and 2nd nationally in rushing touchdowns (28). This doesn’t bode well for Washington halfway through the season; the Huskies rank 15th in rush defense (143.3 YPG), while having the top pass defense in the Big Ten (123 YPC). Opposing quarterbacks average just 47.5% completion rate and 4.7 YPA.
Washington has allowed 5.06 YPC and five rushing scores in conference play. In the two road games against Rutgers and Iowa – two games where Washington failed to cover – they allow 6.26 YPC and four rushing scores. I expect the Indiana backfield to ease the pressure on Jackson, as the Hoosiers move to 8-0.
#12 Notre Dame (6-1) vs. #24 Navy (6-0)*
Navy +13.5; O/U 51
Notre Dame -13.5 (-108)
Over 51 (-110)
* Game played at MetLife Stadium; East Rutherford, NJ
This will be the third time Notre Dame has faced Navy since Marcus Freeman arrived in South Bend; Notre Dame won 35-32 in Baltimore in 2022 and 42-3 last year in Dublin. And while Navy has played well this year and earned their ranking, this is a major step up in competition. Excluding the games in which they lost to Navy, the Midshipmen’s FBS opponents have a combined record of 9-18 against FBS opponents. Only one team is above 500, the Memphis Tigers (6-1); meaning, the other four opponents are a combined 4-18 this year. Navy allowed 44 points to Memphis.
For the Irish, they are still trying to erase that embarrassing loss to Northern Illinois. Navy – along with Army – are currently their last two chances of picking up a ranked win. Marcus Freeman is 9-2-2 ATS against ranked opponents. I think Notre Dame’s offense carries them in this one, as they run away from the Midshipmen.
#8 LSU (6-1) vs. #14 Texas A&M (6-1)
Texas A&M -2.5; O/U 53.5
Texas A&M -2.5 (-115)
The battle of the last two unbeaten teams in SEC play. This is the third straight tough contest for LSU, having played against Ole Miss and traveling to Fayetteville to play Arkansas last week. We’ve already seen a ranked SEC team come into Kyle Field, and we saw Texas A&M win by 30. Brian Kelley is 4-6 SU and ATS against ranked opponents since arriving at LSU, but just 1-5 SU and ATS away from Baton Rouge. The home team has won seven straight, dating back to 2017. I like for the Aggies to make it eight, covering the spread in the process.
Outright Underdogs (.5 Units):
Week 8: 1-3 (-.78 Unit)
Year to Date: 7-16 (-2.58 Units)
(Fri.) Boston College vs. Louisville +240
Friday night is prime for a potential upset – just look at BYU barely squeaking by a struggling Oklahoma State with under a minute left in regulation. Louisville is in a trap spot, coming off a home loss to now #6 Miami and traveling to Clemson next week. BC has struggled in their last two ACC games, but has a rest advantage and has squeaked by in their two home games this year. Boston College is live for an upset on Friday night.
Mississippi State vs. Arkansas +185
Arkansas is in a weird spot in their SEC gauntlet, having hosted three ranked teams in Texas A&M, Tennessee, and LSU in the last month. Now, before they host another ranked team in Ole Miss, they have to take a trip to Stark-Vegas to take on Mississippi State. In their two home SEC contests this year, Mississippi State has been outgained by a combined ten yards to Florida and Texas A&M. Mississippi State has covered their last three at home. Arkansas will need to be on their toes in Starkville, otherwise they might lose their chance at a bowl game.
Texas Tech @ TCU +200
Last week’s weird loss to Baylor felt like an anomaly for the Red Raiders. Texas Tech is putting up 34.3 PPG against Big 12 opponents. TCU’s Josh Hoover has multiple interceptions in three of his last four games. TCU is -11 in turnover margin in FBS play. The Horned Frogs are on upset alert this weekend.
What are your favorite Week 9 college football bets? Let me know on X! Follow me @DrewRoberts_ for more college football and NFL content
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