2024 College Football Week 8 Best Bets
2024 College Football Week 8 Best Bets
Week 7 was a real kick in the teeth for this weekly post. Three bad beats turns what should have been a 3-2 weekend into 0-5. But we move on and persevere.
Last week was a great college football weekend. Ohio State/Oregon and Ole Miss/LSU highlighted a great slate. Other ranked teams were on upset alert and survived. As we turn to Week 8, the week is just as great. For the third time in four weeks, we have a top-5 matchup, along with a plethora of great conference games. Here are my favorite Week 8 college football bets.
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Week 7: 0-5 (-5.5 Units)
Year to Date: 13-20-1 (-8.86 Units)
Arizona State (5-1) vs. Cincinnati (4-2)
Cincinnati -5.5; O/U 51
Cincinnati -5.5 (-110)
Arizona State has been impressive in year two under Kenny Dillingham, even upsetting Utah last week in Tempe. But this is a potential let down spot for the Sun Devils heading to Cincinnati. Arizona State is without starting quarterback Sam Leavitt (ribs), leaving former Georgia Tech and Nebraska quarterback Jeff Sims as his replacement. Sims has 31 touchdowns and 29 interceptions in his collegiate career. This is also a time zone game for Arizona State, with a local 9 AM kickoff. Brendan Sorsby is completing 66.7% of his attempts, throwing seven touchdowns and zero interceptions on 84 attempts at home. If Sorsby continues his clean play at home, I like Cincinnati to clear this number. Back the Bearcats at home.
#6 Miami (6-0) vs. Louisville (4-2)
Louisville +5.5; O/U 61
Louisville +5.5 (-112)
While Miami has more talent, there is a significant coaching advantage for Louisville in this matchup. Mario Christobal is 4-14 ATS in ACC games and 0-3 ATS and SU off a bye. Jeff Brohm is 28-18-1 ATS as an underdog (12-6 ATS as a home dog), and 16-8-1 ATS against ranked teams. Miami has played dangerously close with their conference games, failing to cover against Virginia Tech and Cal. Louisville gets the job done and keeps it within the number against Miami.
Virginia (4-2) vs. #10 Clemson (5-1)
Clemson -21.5; O/U 57.5
Clemson 1st Half -11.5 (-108)
The Tigers lost their opener to then-ranked #1 Georgia and everyone seems to have forgotten about Clemson. But since that loss, Clemson has averaged 48.6 PPG, including 33.8 PPG in the first half (28.3 PPG in the first half of ACC play). Clemson is +121 in point margin in the first half in their last five, clearing this number in four of five. In Virginia’s three road games against ranked teams, they have been outscored 17-52 in the first half. Virginia may keep it within the number for the game, but I like Clemson to get off to a hot start. Take the Tigers in the first half.
Iowa (4-2) vs. Michigan State (3-3)
Michigan State +6; O/U 39.5
Over 39.5 (-108)
This isn’t the Iowa we’re used to, being one of the worst scoring teams in FBS. Yes, they did only put up one touchdown – late – against Ohio State. But in their other five games, the Hawkeyes average 33.6 PPG. The Over has cleared in each of those five. Michigan State could put the Hawkeyes offense in favorable spots; they rank 127th of 134 FBS programs in turnover margin. Aidan Chiles and the Spartans should provide some offense, but I’m relying on the Hawkeyes for most of the points in this one. I’m on the Over in East Lansing.
#5 Georgia (5-1) vs. #1 Texas (6-0)
Texas -5; O/U 57.5
Over 57.5 (-108)
We have two top-5 matchups this season, with the Over hitting in both. Going back to the start of the 2022 season, the Over is 10-3 in matchups between two top-5 times. Elite offense beats elite defenses, and I think we get that again this weekend in Austin. I’m expecting a barrage of points in this battle of the (potential) top-two teams in the SEC.
Outright Underdogs (.5 Units):
Week 7: 2-2 (+.19 Unit)
Year to Date: 6-13 (-1.81 Units)
Louisville vs. #6 Miami +170
We said above why Louisville would keep this one close, but I’m on them to pull the upset and drop Miami from the list of unbeatens.
#22 Illinois vs. #24 Michigan +145
Michigan is coming off the bye after a loss to Washington. But road favorites against this Illinois team? This is the best defense the Wolverines have faced since Texas. Illini pull the home upset.
Houston @ Kansas +170
Both teams are off a bye, but Houston found an offensive spark against TCU in their last outing; they were shutout in their previous two games. Now they go into Lawrence to face Kansas, who has allowed 35 PPG in their three Big 12 conference games. I’m on Houston to upset the Jayhawks.
Air Force +215 vs. Colorado State
Colorado State lost all-time Ram great WR Tory Horton for the season. Air Force saw a boost in offense last week, putting up 37 points in a loss. I believe the Falcons can pull the upset at home against the in-state rival.
What are your favorite Week 8 college football bets? Let me know on X! Follow me @DrewRoberts_ for more college football and NFL content
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