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Stances regarding the rookie wide receiver class have finally begun to consolidate. One commonality is the lack of quality QB play, but other than that- it’s been a wide range of injuries, opportunities, roles and luck factoring into their production. Taking these variables into consideration, we can view more “stable” metrics to better isolate individual performance.
From a total yardage standpoint, Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson are in a tier of their own (representing the Buckeyes too). I understand starting with yards as a baseline can be deceiving, so it’s important not to knock others just because they haven’t measured up in sheer volume.
Chris Olave leads all Saints with 94 targets. Considering the teammate in second is RB Alvin Kamara, Olave certainly benefits from the lack of mouths to feed.
For me, there’s a few issues going forward as it relates to his production. Olave’s 15.2 aDOT is the highest of any pass catcher with at least 70 targets (PFF). Also, according to nfelo, his 38% third down target share leads the entire NFL. Neither of these data points are sustainable, so when they likely regress, it’s important to note his total of just 2 forced missed tackles. This is tied for the lowest among all receivers with at least 60 catches.
The other wideout? Tyler Lockett.
Chris Olave is a great rookie, and will likely have a good career. Ironically, I think Tyler Lockett is a great comp and one that fans can be optimistic about down the road. However, I think he needs some bigger plays after the catch in order to dismiss the areas of regression previously discussed.
Garrett Wilson has popped off ever since QB Mike White took over for the Jets. What’s been encouraging all along is that he produces against man coverage and on intermediate/short passing, emphasizing his skills both as a route runner, and after the catch.
Wilson leads this entire rookie class with 326 YAC, the next-closest is at 174. Wilson also has 16 forced missed tackles, second among all NFL receivers (PFF).
Here are the WR leaders in YAC/reception vs man coverage (min 20):
1) Justin Jefferson – 7.8
2) Ja’Marr Chase – 6.9
3) A.J. Brown – 6.6
4) Garrett Wilson – 6.0
5) Stefon Diggs – 5.7
The Jets are slated to see some favorable secondary matchups. Let’s see if Wilson is this year’s Amon-Ra St. Brown blazing through the end of fantasy seasons.
Over 75% of Drake London’s total yards have come against zone coverage, and just 6.4% of his catches are from 20+ yards depth downfield (PFF). Olave/Wilson have a combined 7 receptions of 40+ yards, London has none.
There’s quite the elephant in the room though..
QB Marcus Mariota and Arthur Smith’s offense aren’t conducive to stability for either Drake London or teammate Kyle Pitts. There’s a ton of in-depth analysis on why they’re exceeding/underperforming, independent of Atlanta’s environment. However, their situation is still too messy to confidently stamp “fade” on future projections.
I wasn’t a London guy before the draft, and remain bearish on him now. But as long as Mariota is under center, London won’t get a fair amount of opportunities to ideally prove/disprove first impressions (let alone see catchable targets). He’s a unique player with an interesting skillset, and his abilities will stand out as time progresses.
Thus far, Olave, Wilson and London are shaping out to be the “big three” of this rookie class. You can probably tell who I enjoy the most after getting through this, but my opinions can definitely change with time. Thanks for reading and have a great Week 14!
