2021 Rookie Values
LET’S FUCKING GO.
I’m Jake, and I’m here to help you win. This may be the first you’ve seen of my content, so before we get to 2021 rookie values, I’ll start by telling you about myself and how I’m going to help you improve your fantasy team. Because, who am I and why the hell should you listen to me? We have much in common—I’m an overly competitive guy who loves football, and HATES losing with every ounce of my being. I’ve been playing re-draft leagues since 2007 and quite frankly, once you know what you’re doing…it’s well—easy. So naturally, I jumped into dynasty, and HOLY SHIT, this has been a blast!
Dynasty year one: It didn’t take long to make a MAJOR mistake. I drafted a damn good team who took me to the championship. “What’s the issue? You’re in year one, and in the championship…you’re doing great Jake.” WRONG! My dumbass drafted a bunch of old dudes who were good but all going to expire in 1-3 years. I built a talented team but failed to acquire young talent to rely on building a ‘dynasty’ around.
At the end of year one, I quickly realized I needed to make adjustments. I resorted to trading. Ended up making around 15 trades (there is an art to this—another article coming later). Those 15 trades were extremely beneficial, I kept my team competitive while dropping the average age by four years. We didn’t make the playoffs this year, partly because I failed to draft properly in year one, and partly due to injuries. Now you’re thinking, or at least you should be thinking—”Why the hell do I want to listen to you? You missed the playoffs!”
BOOM! Finally, to the meat of this article—Why you should listen to what I have to say.
Missing the playoffs is unacceptable. So how do we correct this? There’s plenty of directions to go—but the aspect I want to focus on is rookie drafts. If you consistently win your drafts and make smart decisions through the season you’ll do well in dynasty. So, what specifically are we looking at to become expert rookie drafters? Film? Nope. Albeit, this is and can be beneficial. There is a better way to predict rookie success—which we gauge as high fantasy points. Do we simply look at college numbers and hope they translate into “rookie success?” Well, to an extent—but it’s more complicated than that.
2021 Rookie Values: My Rankings
The answer is REGRESSION ANALYSIS. This is NOT an analysis to predict player regression. Regression is a form of statistical analysis that determines correlation between predictors (attribute being measured: height, weight, BMI, Dom Rating, YPR, YPC, etc…) and the response (fantasy points). In laymen’s terms, it tells us what statistics have a correlation to fantasy points. Fortunately for you, I did this for Quarterbacks, Running Backs, Wide Receivers, and Tight Ends. After investing more than 100 hours, and 10,000 cells of data, I found meaningful results based on historical data! Meaning—we know that from the past, that specific stats and attributes correlate to more fantasy points.
Before we go further, THERE IS NO INTRINSIC WAY TO PREDICT HUMAN BEHAVIOR! Don’t expect any model to be 100-percent accurate. People are not machines and unfortunately, not always predictable. Additionally, I’ve found that film and analytics (in regard to regression) seem to align. It’s a red flag—if they do not. Do yourself a favor and stop arguing with film grinders, film has a role in this community too.
The Top 2021 Rookie Values
I used the regression model for each position (QB, RB, WR, TE) to determine rookie rankings as direct outputs of the formula derived from the analysis. In doing so, there were several guys that should be valued higher than their average draft position.
Terrace Marshall Jr. – WR, LSU
Consensus WR6, My WR2
“But Jake, Terrace is already a consensus top 6 WR!”
He sure is, and that’s too low. Rarely do we see a situation in which an ELITE guy is actually held back because his teammates are just as elite. Jamar Chase and Justin Jefferson are absolute studs. Chase is the highest touted WRs coming out of the draft in a long time. JJettas had an elite rookie season. His internal competition was insane—yes, better than Alabama. Terrace scored the highest on my predictive model and he’s a guy we can depend on. When we pick our first-round picks, they should be risk averse. Terrace has zero red flags. We are CONFIDENTLY drafting him as WR2. There is plenty to love about Terrace:
- 46.5-percent Dominator Rating
- 19.2 Breakout Age
- 6-3, 215-pounds
- Elite Speed
- 4.42 Forty-yard Dash
- 106 Speed Score
Tamorrion Terry – WR, FSU
Consensus WR11, My WR9
Before I touch on the analytical side of dynasty football I watch the film. TERRY BLEW ME AWAY! Terry is a physical specimen who does it all. My man was laying people out as gunner on the punt team! He was throwing guys out of bounds blocking for his RB. And he was an absolute playmaker after the catch. He played on a team that was bad offensively. Not sure if was scheme, QB, coaching, etc., but when FSU got Terry the ball, he made plays. Analytically, the score output placed him as WR11, but with his upside, size, speed, and playmaking ability I pushed him up a couple of spots. This guy is going to be a steal in the NFL and is one of the best values in 2021 rookie drafts.
- 36.3-percent Dominator Rating
- 20.5 Breakout Age
- 103.7 Speed Score
Tylan Wallace – WR, Oklahoma St
Consensus WR9, My WR5
Another physical guy. We love guys with the high ceilings, and high floors. The guys with NFL size are a safer bet. I’m not saying the smaller guys can’t do it at the next level, but I am saying the floors are higher on guys with “NFL size.” Tylan is a little smaller than we like at 5-11, 195-pounds but he’s bigger than DeVonta Smith, Elijah Moore, and Jaylen Waddle. Tylan looks extremely dynamic on the field and embraces contact. His ability to separate is elite. Most importantly, the model loves him:
- 47.1-percent Dominator Rating
- 19.3 Breakout Age
- 4.48 Forty-yard Dash
Trey Sermon – RB, OSU
Consensus RB9, my RB6
RBs ranked 4-11 seem to be all over the place, but I can’t get past this guy. He looked an animal in 2020 and I’m not sure why he isn’t garnishing more attention. When we watch his tape, he was a man running with a point to prove and it was impressive. He looked both elusive and physical. Trey would run through defenders and made them miss at will. He averaged an impressive 7.5 yards a carry this year (2020) and averaged over 100 yards per game. I’m not sure if it’s coaching that took him to the next level or scheme, but he is not the same guy that was running behind Rhamondre Stevenson at Oklahoma. Analytically, the model placed Sermon as RB7, his filmed pushed him to RB6 for me. Here’s what we saw with Sermon:
- 5th highest burst score (125.4) among all tested RBs
- At 215-pounds, he matches that NFL RB size that we want to see. The average weight of the top 20 fantasy RBs the past two years is 215-pounds.
- 14.8-percent Dominator Rating, this drove him down.
Kenny Yeboah – TE, Miami (Fl)
Not a top 50 consensus player, My TE2
In fantasy it’s becoming more and more important to have a top 5 tight end to contend for a championship. The production drop off after Kittle, Kelce, Waller is massive. It’s clearly important to not overlook the position. The right guy can make or break the season. Yeboah first stood out to me at the Senior Bowl and I didn’t pay much attention to him until his score output placed him higher than both Freirmuth and Jordan at TE2. For TEs speed score, weight, 40 and Dom rating play a role in determining fantasy success. Yeboah was great and when we watch his film he definitely deserves to be in the discussion of top TEs. (outside of Pitts). For a guy not on many radars, definitely worth a late round flier.
- 111.6 Speed Score
- 250-pounds
- (Projected) 4.6 Forty-yard dash
- 25.1-percent Dominator Rating
Kellen Mond – QB, Texas A&M
Consensus QB8, My QB6
First off, let me start by saying this. Quarterbacks are an absolute nightmare to predict. I have a predictive model, but our sample size wasn’t large enough for me to be confident in the determinations. With that said the formula outputted Mond as my QB3. Now, that’s not where I would rank him but it’s encouraging. That suggests that historically Mond has traits that previous QBs have had that could allow him to excel. Every year we have our round-1 QBs bust, and then less-touted QB come in and excel (ie: Mahomes, Herbert). Mond may be that guy this year. He played behind a mediocre offensive line and didn’t have a ton of weapons around him. He still got the job done and put together a solid year. He’s another guy I am comfortable taking late in my rookie drafts.
- Weight – 211-pounds
- 74.9 QBR
- 7.7 YPA
If you made it this far I appreciate the hell out of you! Go draft the guys above and when they pan out, remember who told you first. Again, what’s awesome about the information I’m sharing is that it’s objective. We compute stats from prior players of the same position and look to see what traits they possessed in college that translated to NFL success. When it comes to being predictive, this is the crème de la crème. For more information and statistical analysis follow me on twitter @Dynasty_Jake (JakeDynastyFF).
