2021 Rookie Running Backs: Part 1
The incoming 2021 draft class is widely considered one of the most talented in recent years. But that’s not because of the running back group, which is actually one of the weakest we’ve seen in several years. While there’s no Jonathan Taylor or Saquon Barkley, there are a few to get excited about. Part one of this series will look at the consensus top-three (in no particular order).
Travis Etienne, Clemson
Position: RB
School: Clemson
Class: Senior
Date of Birth: January 26, 1999
Height: 5-10
Weight: 210lbs
Travis Etienne was a four-star recruit out of Louisiana after posting 2,459 yards and 40 touchdowns in his senior year of high school. He was ranked as the No.15 RB in the 2017 class and received offers from 29 schools, including Clemson, Alabama, LSU, and Texas A&M. Etienne chose Clemson and was immediately plugged in as the school’s starting running back. He led the Tigers in rushing as a true freshman with 766 yards and 13 touchdowns on 107 carries on his way to third-team All-ACC honors. Etienne took a massive leap in 2018, rushing 204 times for 1,658 yards and 24 touchdowns as a key cog in Clemson’s National Title run. His 8.1 yards per carry was third-best of any power five player.
Etienne logged similar numbers on the ground in 2019, but saw significant growth as a receiver. He hauled in 37 passes for 432 yards and four scores. Etienne surprised many by returning to Clemson for his senior season. In 2020, he set new career highs as a receiver, despite taking a step back in the rushing department. On 168 carries he ran for 914 yards and 14 touchdowns while adding 48 receptions for 588 yards and two scores.
Etienne leaves the college ranks as the ACC’s all-time leading rusher. His career totals are 4,952 rushing yards, 1,155 receiving yards and total 78 touchdowns. He ranks fourth all-time in NCAA history in career touchdowns, 11th in yards per carry (7.2), 15th in yards from scrimmage, and No.7 in points scored.
We won’t get to see him compete at the NFL Combine due to COVID-19 restrictions, but he is expected to test well at Clemson’s Pro Day. He reportedly ran a 4.32 40-yard dash as a junior in high school.
College Stats
Positives
+102 career receptions
+Career 7.2 yards per carry average
+Burst and long speed
+Short area quickness
+Good hands
+Dynamic route-runner
+Explosive
+A home-run threat
+Elite acceleration
+Contact balance
+100+ touches and double-digit touchdowns all four seasons
+From PFF on Etienne’s 2019: “His 91 broken tackles on 207 attempts is far and away the highest broken tackle rate we’ve ever charted from a college running back”
+9.3% of career rush attempts have gone for 20+ yards
+His 40 carries of 20+ yards over 2018-2019 were 11 more than any other RB
+14.7% Reception Share in 2020
+1.67 Yards Per Team Play
Negatives
-Questionable Size; Is he 210lbs? 205? 200?
-Impatient at times; bad habit of looking to bounce-outside
-Vision could be better
-Pass protection
-Runs upright which can limit his power at times
Draft Projection: Second Round
Bottom Line:
Travis Etienne checks a ton of boxes. He was extremely productive and efficient from day one at Clemson. He presents elite athleticism, speed, acceleration, and explosiveness. Etienne is at his best when he gets to the edges, but he’s a more than capable runner inside. His pass protection needs some work if he’s going to be a consistent contributor on passing downs, but it’s not a major concern especially considering his receiving production over the last two seasons. Despite being a completely different player in almost every way, Etienne is often discussed with Alabama running back Najee Harris when debating who is the top back in the class. While Harris may be a better pure runner, Etienne’s athleticism gives him a bit more upside. He has all the tools to become one of the NFL’s most dangerous weapons and should be one of the first picks in dynasty rookie drafts.
Najee Harris, Alabama
Position: RB
School: Alabama
Class: Senior
Date of Birth: Mar 9, 1998
Height:6-2
Weight: 231lbs
Najee Harris was the second overall national recruit across all positions and highest ranked running back in the 2017 class. He accumulated 7,948 rushing yards and 95 touchdowns with 438 receiving yards during his illustrious high school career. Teams were fighting to bring him into their program as he received more than 50 FBS offers. Harris was buried on the depth chart early in his Alabama career, behind guys like Josh Jacobs, Damien Harris, and Bo Scarbrough. He still managed 377 total yards, three touchdowns, and a 6.1 yards per carry average as a true freshman.
Still behind Jacobs and Harris as a sophomore, Harris was able to top 1,000 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns in 2018. The backfield was his in 2019, though, and he took full advantage. On his way to second-team All-SEC honors, Harris carried 209 times for 1,224 yards (5.9 ypc), and 13 touchdowns. He added 27 receptions for 304 yards (11.3 average), and seven scores through the air.
It was a shock to see Harris return to school for his senior season after posting such a great year. He turned his extra season into 1,466 rushing yards (5.8 ypc), 43 receptions, 425 receiving yards, and 30 total touchdowns.
College Stats
Positives
+Size; 6-2, 231lbs
+Projects as a three-down RB
+Can make defenders miss in the open field
+Power
+Multiple scheme fit
+Durability; Five games in 2020 with 25+ touches
+Receiving threat; 70 receptions over last two seasons; 13.3% reception share in 2020
+Strong
+3.57 yards after contact per attempt
+Scored 35.7% of Alabama TDs in 2020
+2.1 yards per team play in 2020
+No.3 in YAC
+No.2 in Missed tackles forced
+No.7 in carries of 15+ yards
Negatives
-Slow
-Older prospect
-Took advantage of elite Alabama O-line
-Doesn’t always run to his size
-Not a home-run threat
Draft Projection: Day 2
Bottom Line:
Najee Harris is far from the fastest or most explosive running back in the 2021 draft class. In fact, he’s probably one of the slower. However, at 6-3, 230-pounds, he’s one of the biggest, strongest, and most powerful. Harris was an extremely efficient runner at Alabama and he showed he has the receiving skills to be an effective three-down threat at the NFL level. He will likely find day-two draft capital to a team looking to make him their featured back for the next four years. Harris is looking like a locked-in top-three pick in dynasty rookie drafts.
Javonte Williams, North Carolina
Position: RB
School: North Carolina
Class: Junior
Date of Birth: April 25, 2000
Height: 5-10
Weight: 220lbs
Javonte Williams racked up 2,271 rushing yards and 27 touchdowns as a senior at Wallace-Rose Hill High School in North Carolina. The school won its fourth straight championship and Williams was named the game’s MVP. Williams was also a high school track star, winning a state title in the 4×100-meter relay in 2016. He was a three-star recruit and ranked as the 94th running back in the country. Though he was the 46th overall player from North Carolina, he was ranked outside the top-1,000 players in the nation. The University of North Carolina was the only major school to show interest and Williams committed to be a Tarheal in late 2017.
Williams was stuck in a four-back committee as a freshman, carrying just 43 times for 224 yards and five touchdowns. The backfield was cut to a two-way split in 2018 as Williams shared time with fellow 2021 draft prospect Michael Carter. Williams managed 933 rushing yards on 166 carries with 17 receptions for 176 receiving yards. He scored six total touchdowns.
Carter, a year ahead of Williams, returned for his senior season when the two continued their near even split of the workload. Williams carried 157 times for 1,140 yards. His 19 rushing touchdowns was third in the nation. He added 25 receptions for 305 yards and three additional scores. Williams chose to sit out the Orange Bowl to prepare for the NFL Draft process, meaning his final game was a 236-yard performance against Miami.
College Stats
Stats courtesy of Sports-Reference.com
Positives
+Size; 5-10, 220lbs
+YAC; 4.59 YAC/attempt (PFF); No.4 in total YAC
+Three-down back
+Vision
+Averaged 7.3 yards per carry in 2020
+25 receptions in 2020
+He set the PFF record for broken tackles per attempt (0.48), and his 75 total broken tackles led all of college football
+Violent runner
+Elite contact balance
+27 carries of 15+ yards
+1.64 yards per route
+33.3% TD share in 2020
+1.7 yards per team play
+8.4% Target Share (64th-percentile)
Negatives
-Shared backfield; was never a featured back
-One-year wonder
-Long speed is questionable
Draft Projection: Day two
Bottom Line:
Javonte Williams excelled in 2020 despite the split backfield with Michael Carter. It was the crescendo of his three year career that saw his production improve every season. Williams added 15-pounds over the last two years to become the aggressive, violent, tackle-breaking machine he was in his final season. He now stands at an impressive 5-10, 220lbs, an ideal size for a featured back in the NFL. And that’s exactly what he will be, thanks to his skills as a receiver. When Najee Harris and Travis Etienne returned for their senior seasons, we wondered who would emerge as the RB3 of the 2021 class. It turns out, Williams is that guy. So-much-so that Williams is closer to RB1 than the RB4. He’s looking like a top-five or six selection in dynasty rookie drafts and a Day two pick in the NFL.
Resources: DLF, PlayerProfiler, TDN, PFF
